Lafayette Leopards at Butler Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
60–96Last shot · Herly Brutus misses 23-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected LAF 65.34–83.44 BTLR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 186438205
- Winner: Butler (95%)
- Spread: LAF +20.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Under 149.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LAF 65.34–83.44 BTLR · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBTLR +0.0 off · LAF +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BTLR
- Market priorBlended 86% toward BTLR -19.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAF | 34 | 26 | 60 |
| BTLR | 54 | 42 | 96 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 8:0849–81
Owen Kelly makes driving layup (Shareef Jackson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 7:3649–84
Jordan Ellerbee makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Jackson assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 6:4149–86
Drayton Jones makes 2-foot dunk (Eduardo Klafke assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:5252–86
KaiMani Murdock makes 28-foot three point jumper (Beckett Currie assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:3652–89
Asim Djulovic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Eduardo Klafke assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4052–92
Jalen Jackson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Samis Calderon assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:2453–92
Beckett Currie makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1253–93
Treyson Anderson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4755–93
Cooper Kesler makes 12-foot turnaround jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1155–96
Jordan Ellerbee makes 30-foot three point jumper (Baron Walker assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4257–96
Folabomi Fayemi makes driving layup (Ashton Wallace assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3760–96
Ashton Wallace makes 26-foot three point jumper (AJ Collins assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LAF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Gill F · #13 | 23 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
 S. Jackson F · #44 | 19 | 14 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 S. Henton G · #3 | 20 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Kesler G · #0 | 32 | 9 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 B. Currie G · #1 | 28 | 7 | 3-12 | 0-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Murdock F · #2 | 12 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 L. Azzinaro F · #11 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Bevilacqua F · #34 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Rasul F · #14 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Bednostin C · #33 | 16 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
 O. Kelly G · #15 | 22 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 AJ Collins G · #4 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 A. Wallace G · #20 | 3 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 P. D'Arcy G · #5 | 11 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 F. Fayemi G · #24 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Sievert G · #55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 60 | 25-67 | 4-24 | 6-12 | 28 | 8 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 14 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LAF | BTLR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-67 | 32-67 |
| FG% | 37 | 48 |
| 3PT | 4-24 | 16-44 |
| 3P% | 17 | 36 |
| FT | 6-12 | 16-17 |
| FT% | 50 | 94 |
| REB | 28 | 51 |
| OR | 11 | 17 |
| DR | 17 | 34 |
| AST | 8 | 26 |
| STL | 11 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 6 |
| TO | 16 | 20 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 20 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 21 |
| FBPs | 10 | 25 |
| PIP | 42 | 32 |
| PF | 14 | 14 |
| LL | 0 | 41 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock LAF 65.34–83.44 BTLR · BTLR by 18.1 pts vs LAF +20.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Gill · LAF
23 MIN · 8 PTSA. Djulovic · BTLR
22 MIN · 19 PTSJalen Jackson · BTLR
STAT · 27 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-10 FG · 4-6 3PTJordan Ellerbee · BTLR
STAT · 20 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-8 FG · 4-6 3PTShareef Jackson · LAF
STAT · 19 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-10 FG · 2-3 FTEduardo Klafke · BTLR
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-10 FG · 1-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lafayette vs Butler pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LAF +20.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day