Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves
Final · DAZN MIN
117–106Last shot · Jaden McDaniels misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
At lock: projected CHI 111.38–126.08 MIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 725795303
- Winner: Timberwolves (90%)
- Score error (both teams)26
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Powell points | — | 21 | 23 | off 2 |
| J. Giddey points | — | 14 | 8 | off -6 |
| J. McDaniels points | — | 16 | 18 | off 2 |
| R. Gobert points | — | 10 | 1 | off -9 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CHI vs MIN
The model
How this number was built
CHI 111.38–126.08 MIN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIN +5.5 vs CHI -5.4 · pred margin +15.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.6 vs -6.4 · back-to-back: CHI · model MIN 127.9–110.6 CHI
- Home field+2.8 pts to MIN
- RecordMIN 9-5 · CHI 4-9
- Market priorBlended 65% toward MIN -16.5 / total 237.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 117 |
| MIN | 17 | 28 | 35 | 26 | 106 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 4:33110–95Leonard Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4:33111–95
Leonard Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
SCORE4th Quarter 3:26111–97Terrence Shannon Jr. makes running layup (Jonathan Kuminga assists)
- FT4th Quarter 3:12111–98
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:12111–99
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:34111–101
Ayo Dosunmu makes layup (Jaden McDaniels assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:31111–102
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:16113–102
Isaac Okoro makes 1-foot dunk (Josh Giddey assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:39113–104
Ayo Dosunmu makes running layup (Jaden McDaniels assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:28113–106
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes running layup (Jaden McDaniels assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:10116–106
Patrick Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)
- FT4th Quarter 52.2117–106
Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CHI | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Z. Collins F · #12 | 28 | 8 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +8 |
 I. Okoro F · #35 | 31 | 9 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 3-5 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 |
 M. Buzelis F · #14 | 30 | 18 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 |
 N. Powell G · #24 | 30 | 24 | 10-19 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +5 |
 J. Giddey G · #3 | 26 | 8 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +4 |
 P. Williams F · #44 | 26 | 14 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +10 |
 L. Miller F · #11 | 17 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
 N. Essengue F · #2 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +3 |
 B. Hield G · #7 | 20 | 16 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +11 |
 T. Jones G · #30 | 24 | 16 | 7-9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +9 |
 O. Robinson C · #00 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Hawkins G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 117 | 44-90 | 14-30 | 15-18 | 47 | 29 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CHI | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 44-90 | 38-91 |
| FG% | 49 | 42 |
| 3PT | 14-30 | 9-38 |
| 3P% | 47 | 24 |
| FT | 15-18 | 21-28 |
| FT% | 83 | 75 |
| REB | 47 | 44 |
| OR | 11 | 12 |
| DR | 36 | 32 |
| AST | 29 | 23 |
| STL | 8 | 12 |
| BLK | 8 | 3 |
| TO | 18 | 15 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 19 | 16 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 21 | 16 |
| FBPs | 27 | 23 |
| PIP | 54 | 54 |
| PF | 24 | 18 |
| LL | 16 | 4 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 94 | 3 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Under 10.5 points in 10 of 11 games this season (7.9 PPG; 9, 10, 8, 8, 10 his last five) on 4-6 shots a night. Even with Edwards and DiVincenzo out he scored 9 in a 133-94 rout of Dallas. Minnesota is a 15.5-point favorite over a Chicago team on the second night of a back-to-back after an OT game, so a blowout can cut his minutes again.
Model projected CHI 111.38 – 126.08 MIN at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop L. Ball · MIN
19 PTS · under 21.5Z. Collins · CHI
28 MIN · 8 PTSJ. McDaniels · MIN
37 MIN · 18 PTSNorman Powell · CHI
STAT · 30 MIN · 24 PTS · 10-19 FG · 3-5 3PTAyo Dosunmu · MIN
STAT · 33 MIN · 24 PTS · 10-16 FG · 0-2 3PTMatas Buzelis · CHI
STAT · 30 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · L. Ball Under 21.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bulls vs Timberwolves pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day