Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Final · NBA TV
94–133Last shot · Jett Howard misses 23-foot running jump shot
At lock: projected DAL 111.25–117.55 MIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2774091844
- Winner: Timberwolves (71%)
- Spread: MIN -5.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 227.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)32
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Flagg points | — | 23 | 12 | off -11 |
| R. Gobert points | — | 10 | 9 | off -1 |
| P.J. Washington points | — | 14 | 10 | off -4 |
| J. McDaniels points | — | 16 | 16 | off 0 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DAL vs MIN
The model
How this number was built
DAL 111.25–117.55 MIN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIN +5.5 vs DAL -0.1 · pred margin +6.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.6 vs -2.2 · back-to-back: MIN, DAL · model MIN 120.2–110.1 DAL
- Home field+2.8 pts to MIN
- RecordMIN 9-3 · DAL 7-5
- Market priorBlended 65% toward MIN -5.5 / total 226.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 26 | 26 | 17 | 25 | 94 |
| MIN | 34 | 33 | 36 | 30 | 133 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 5:2182–122Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
FT4th Quarter 5:1582–123Bones Hyland makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:3885–123
Zaccharie Risacher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:0585–125
Bones Hyland makes running layup (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:3485–127
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:4785–129
Isaiah Evans makes 2-foot two point shot (Bones Hyland assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:3088–129
Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:5991–129
Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
- DUNK SHOT4th Quarter 1:4091–131
Joan Beringer makes dunk (Bones Hyland assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:2294–131
Jett Howard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
- FT4th Quarter 58.194–132
Joan Beringer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 58.194–133
Joan Beringer makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DAL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Martin F · #16 | 21 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -18 |
 D. Gafford F · #21 | 16 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -17 |
 P.J. Washington F · #25 | 16 | 10 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -14 |
 C. Flagg F · #32 | 27 | 12 | 5-12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -21 |
 K. Irving G · #11 | 27 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -36 |
 N. Marshall F · #3 | 23 | 13 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -26 |
 S. Aldama F · #34 | 10 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -16 |
 M. Johnson Jr. F · #14 | 13 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -12 |
 T. Lawal F · #33 | 12 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -5 |
 Z. Risacher F · #10 | 25 | 22 | 9-14 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -6 |
 M. Cisse C · #30 | 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
 M. Sasser G · #8 | 9 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 |
 M. Christie G · #0 | 7 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
 W. Clayton Jr. G · #1 | 22 | 5 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -15 |
 J. Howard G · #9 | 5 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
| Team | 94 | 35-94 | 13-48 | 11-14 | 38 | 26 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 24 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DAL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 35-94 | 52-90 |
| FG% | 37 | 58 |
| 3PT | 13-48 | 15-32 |
| 3P% | 27 | 47 |
| FT | 11-14 | 14-19 |
| FT% | 79 | 74 |
| REB | 38 | 50 |
| OR | 14 | 8 |
| DR | 24 | 42 |
| AST | 26 | 33 |
| STL | 9 | 10 |
| BLK | 7 | 7 |
| TO | 19 | 17 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 17 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 25 | 29 |
| FBPs | 23 | 26 |
| PIP | 42 | 74 |
| PF | 23 | 19 |
| LL | 5 | 44 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 15 | 84 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: 6+ rebounds in 10 of 11 games (6.1 RPG, 35.6 MPG last 5). Edwards and DiVincenzo out for MIN means more minutes, and DAL is without its top rebounder Dereck Lively II.
Model projected DAL 111.25 – 117.55 MIN at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop L. Ball · MIN
22 PTS · over 20.5C. Martin · DAL
21 MIN · 7 PTSJ. McDaniels · MIN
25 MIN · 16 PTSBones Hyland · MIN
STAT · 23 MIN · 24 PTS · 7-10 FG · 5-6 3PTZaccharie Risacher · DAL
STAT · 25 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-14 FG · 4-8 3PTAyo Dosunmu · MIN
STAT · 27 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-15 FG · 2-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · L. Ball Under 20.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves pick result · Nov 12, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day