Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
Final · NBC
103–123Last shot · Nique Clifford misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected OKC 112.00–113.00 POR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2656795606
- Winner: Thunder (60%)
- Spread: OKC -2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 227.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)23
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Camara points | — | 13 | 10 | off -3 |
| A. Mitchell points | — | 16 | 14 | off -2 |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander points | — | 31 | 26 | off -5 |
| D. Avdija points | — | 24 | 24 | off 0 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OKC vs POR
The model
How this number was built
OKC 112.00–113.00 POR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPOR +4.3 vs OKC +7.0 · pred margin -1.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +3.5 vs +5.3 · back-to-back: POR, OKC · model POR 112.9–112.9 OKC
- Home field+2.8 pts to POR
- RecordPOR 7-3 · OKC 8-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward OKC -1.5 / total 226.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 27 | 32 | 21 | 23 | 103 |
| POR | 26 | 33 | 38 | 26 | 123 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 6:1294–110Bennett Stirtz makes 4-foot two point shot
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:4894–113Sidy Cissoko makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 5:3996–113
Aday Mara makes alley oop dunk (Nique Clifford assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:5396–116
Sidy Cissoko makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)
- FT4th Quarter 4:3496–117
Scoot Henderson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4:3496–118
Scoot Henderson makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:0798–118
Bennett Stirtz makes 15-foot fade away jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:38100–118
Aday Mara makes alley oop dunk (Bennett Stirtz assists)
- FT4th Quarter 44.8100–119
Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 44.8100–120
Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 36.0103–120
Bennett Stirtz makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brooks Barnhizer assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 20.5103–123
Scoot Henderson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OKC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Hartenstein C · #55 | 24 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -7 |
 K. Williams G · #34 | 19 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -15 |
 S. Gilgeous-Alexander G · #2 | 29 | 26 | 8-22 | 0-4 | 10-11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -17 |
 J. McCain G · #3 | 31 | 21 | 6-12 | 4-7 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -14 |
 A. Mitchell G · #25 | 28 | 14 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -18 |
 B. Barnhizer F · #23 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 A. Mara C · #15 | 26 | 10 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 | -14 |
 A. Caruso G · #9 | 19 | 5 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 |
 M. Peavy G · #16 | 21 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -11 |
 N. Clifford G · #18 | 20 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 |
 B. Stirtz G · #14 | 18 | 13 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3 |
| Team | 103 | 37-84 | 8-22 | 21-27 | 45 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OKC | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 37-84 | 40-91 |
| FG% | 44 | 44 |
| 3PT | 8-22 | 19-50 |
| 3P% | 36 | 38 |
| FT | 21-27 | 24-26 |
| FT% | 78 | 92 |
| REB | 45 | 44 |
| OR | 11 | 11 |
| DR | 34 | 33 |
| AST | 20 | 26 |
| STL | 4 | 4 |
| BLK | 4 | 4 |
| TO | 12 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 12 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 11 | 8 |
| FBPs | 10 | 13 |
| PIP | 38 | 34 |
| PF | 24 | 21 |
| LL | 5 | 22 |
| LC | 14 | 14 |
| LPCT | 19 | 69 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
They agree: the model projects POR by 1.00, which also covers POR +1.5.
Why Grok Expert likes POR +1.5: Blazers 6-3 and catching points at home; OKC is without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Jaylin Williams.
At lock OKC 112.00–113.00 POR · POR by 1.0 pts vs POR +1.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp D. Lillard · POR
25 PTS · over 19.5I. Hartenstein · OKC
24 MIN · 7 PTST. Camara · POR
30 MIN · 12 PTSShai Gilgeous-Alexander · OKC
STAT · 29 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-22 FG · 0-4 3PTDeni Avdija · POR
STAT · 34 MIN · 24 PTS · 8-15 FG · 2-4 3PTJared McCain · OKC
STAT · 31 MIN · 21 PTS · 6-12 FG · 4-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · D. Lillard Under 19.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is POR +1.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day