Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks
Final · Spectrum Sports Net
124–114Last shot · Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected LAL 118.23–116.83 ATL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2807941272
- Winner: Lakers (55%)
- Spread: ATL +2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 235.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)8
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johnson points | — | 21 | 15 | off -6 |
| L. Doncic points | — | 36 | 32 | off -4 |
| N. Alexander-Walker points | — | 21 | 20 | off -1 |
| A. Reaves points | — | 23 | 0 | off -23 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LAL vs ATL
The model
How this number was built
LAL 118.23–116.83 ATL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexATL +1.1 vs LAL +5.0 · pred margin +1.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +1.5 vs +3.9 · back-to-back: ATL, LAL · model ATL 116.5–117.2 LAL
- Home field+2.8 pts to ATL
- RecordATL 7-5 · LAL 10-2
- Market priorBlended 65% toward ATL -2.5 / total 233.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 31 | 37 | 27 | 29 | 124 |
| ATL | 22 | 35 | 33 | 24 | 114 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 5:30110–104Luka Doncic makes 1-foot two point shot
SCORE4th Quarter 5:13110–106CJ McCollum makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:51113–106
Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:31113–109
CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)
- FT4th Quarter 3:51114–109
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:51115–109
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:30115–111
Dyson Daniels makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:27117–111
Luka Doncic makes 1-foot two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:20119–111
Ziaire Williams makes driving dunk
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:51121–111
Jake LaRavia makes 1-foot dunk (Luka Doncic assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:12121–114
CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three pointer (Dyson Daniels assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 52.9124–114
Matisse Thybulle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LAL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Z. Williams F · #11 | 28 | 12 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +5 |
 J. LaRavia F · #12 | 32 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
 W. Kessler C · #14 | 30 | 21 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | -3 |
 M. Thybulle G · #4 | 23 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
 L. Doncic G · #77 | 39 | 32 | 11-22 | 3-11 | 7-7 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +4 |
 J. Vanderbilt F · #2 | 13 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +7 |
 S. Mamukelashvili F · #54 | 32 | 23 | 7-13 | 5-8 | 4-4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | +20 |
 A. Thiero F · #1 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +5 |
 C. Sexton G · #10 | 27 | 18 | 6-11 | 3-4 | 3-6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +7 |
 C. Carr G · #43 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +8 |
 K. Looney F · #55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Lovering C | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. James G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Hardy G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 124 | 45-85 | 15-35 | 19-23 | 40 | 30 | 15 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LAL | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 45-85 | 40-88 |
| FG% | 53 | 45 |
| 3PT | 15-35 | 17-44 |
| 3P% | 43 | 39 |
| FT | 19-23 | 17-23 |
| FT% | 83 | 74 |
| REB | 40 | 40 |
| OR | 8 | 12 |
| DR | 32 | 28 |
| AST | 30 | 33 |
| STL | 16 | 12 |
| BLK | 6 | 6 |
| TO | 15 | 19 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 20 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 14 | 29 |
| FBPs | 17 | 20 |
| PIP | 52 | 42 |
| PF | 16 | 18 |
| LL | 20 | 8 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 79 | 18 |
At lock LAL 118.23–116.83 ATL · LAL by 1.4 pts vs ATL +2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp L. Doncic · LAL
32 PTS · under 33.5Z. Williams · LAL
28 MIN · 12 PTSO. Okongwu · ATL
30 MIN · 16 PTSSandro Mamukelashvili · LAL
STAT · 32 MIN · 23 PTS · 7-13 FG · 5-8 3PTWalker Kessler · LAL
STAT · 30 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-12 FG · 5-6 FTCJ McCollum · ATL
STAT · 24 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-15 FG · 3-5 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · L. Doncic Under 33.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lakers vs Hawks pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ATL +2.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day