Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
Final · MyMi
117–97Last shot · Ron Harper Jr. makes 12-foot two point shot
At lock: projected BOS 117.24–105.37 MIL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 643878684
- Winner: Celtics (84%)
- Spread: MIL +12.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 222.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)9
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. White points | — | 15 | 9 | off -6 |
| T. Herro points | — | 21 | 13 | off -8 |
| K. Porter Jr. points | — | 17 | 0 | off -17 |
| J. Tatum points | — | 24 | 21 | off -3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BOS vs MIL
The model
How this number was built
BOS 117.24–105.37 MIL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIL -8.3 vs BOS +7.5 · pred margin -13.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -8.0 vs +7.0 · back-to-back: MIL, BOS · model MIL 102.1–116.1 BOS
- Home field+2.8 pts to MIL
- RecordMIL 1-9 · BOS 8-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BOS -13.5 / total 222.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 25 | 33 | 33 | 26 | 117 |
| MIL | 27 | 18 | 29 | 23 | 97 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 4:20110–88Luka Garza makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 4:04110–89Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:32110–90
Ousmane Dieng makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:32110–91
Ousmane Dieng makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:19111–91
Baylor Scheierman makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:19112–91
Baylor Scheierman makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:51112–92
Kasparas Jakucionis makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:31114–92
Luka Garza makes two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:24114–94
Nate Ament makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 1:10115–94
Luka Garza makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 52.7115–97
Ousmane Dieng makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 34.7117–97
Ron Harper Jr. makes 12-foot two point shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BOS | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. George F · #13 | 28 | 27 | 11-18 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +16 |
 J. Tatum F · #0 | 29 | 21 | 6-19 | 5-11 | 4-4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +5 |
 N. Queta C · #88 | 22 | 13 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Conley G · #45 | 10 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -11 |
 D. White G · #9 | 27 | 9 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +7 |
 S. Hauser F · #30 | 23 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +15 |
 L. Garza C · #52 | 9 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +3 |
 M. Robinson C · #4 | 18 | 12 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +19 |
 P. Pritchard G · #11 | 29 | 12 | 4-12 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +29 |
 R. Harper Jr. G · #8 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
 B. Scheierman G · #55 | 19 | 7 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +15 |
 J. Walsh G · #27 | 11 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 |
 H. Gonzalez G · #28 | 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 117 | 45-95 | 18-48 | 9-14 | 48 | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 20 | 28 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BOS | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 45-95 | 35-79 |
| FG% | 47 | 44 |
| 3PT | 18-48 | 15-43 |
| 3P% | 38 | 35 |
| FT | 9-14 | 12-14 |
| FT% | 64 | 86 |
| REB | 48 | 36 |
| OR | 20 | 9 |
| DR | 28 | 27 |
| AST | 27 | 24 |
| STL | 12 | 5 |
| BLK | 5 | 5 |
| TO | 10 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 10 | 15 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 11 | 21 |
| FBPs | 15 | 9 |
| PIP | 44 | 28 |
| PF | 16 | 15 |
| LL | 23 | 14 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 74 | 25 |
At lock BOS 117.24–105.37 MIL · BOS by 11.9 pts vs MIL +12.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp K. Kuzma · MIL
4 REB · under 4.5P. George · BOS
28 MIN · 27 PTSJayson Tatum · BOS
STAT · 29 MIN · 21 PTS · 6-19 FG · 5-11 3PTNeemias Queta · BOS
STAT · 22 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-11 FG · 1-2 FTTyler Herro · MIL
STAT · 27 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-12 FG · 1-5 3PTBrayden Burries · MIL
STAT · 29 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-11 FG · 1-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · K. Kuzma Under 4.5 reb
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Celtics vs Bucks pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIL +12.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day