Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
Final · NBA TV
114–102Last shot · Pascal Siakam misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected DEN 118.73–111.60 IND
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 491747280
- Winner: Nuggets (73%)
- Spread: IND +7.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 229.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)15
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Siakam points | — | 23 | 23 | off 0 |
| A. Nembhard points | — | 18 | 9 | off -9 |
| J. Murray points | — | 25 | 16 | off -9 |
| N. Jokic points | — | 26 | 19 | off -7 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DEN vs IND
The model
How this number was built
DEN 118.73–111.60 IND · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexIND -3.1 vs DEN +3.4 · pred margin -7.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -3.8 vs +3.2 · back-to-back: IND, DEN · model IND 111.9–117.4 DEN
- Home field+2.8 pts to IND
- RecordIND 3-7 · DEN 5-3
- Market priorBlended 67% toward DEN -8.5 / total 229.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 27 | 37 | 26 | 24 | 114 |
| IND | 19 | 22 | 37 | 24 | 102 |
Scoring plays
LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 6:34104–95Spencer Jones makes layup (Jamal Murray assists)
- DUNK SHOT4th Quarter 5:28106–95
Aaron Gordon makes 1-foot dunk (Jamal Murray assists)
- FT4th Quarter 4:54107–95
Christian Braun makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4:54108–95
Christian Braun makes free throw 2 of 2
SCORE4th Quarter 4:30108–97Jalen Slawson makes 2-foot layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)
- LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 3:49108–99
Pascal Siakam makes layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:16110–99
Jamal Murray makes two point shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:07110–102
Andrew Nembhard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:45111–102
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:45112–102
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 38.9113–102
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 38.9114–102
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DEN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Gordon F · #32 | 27 | 12 | 5-13 | 0-6 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 |
 C. Johnson F · #23 | 29 | 18 | 8-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +5 |
 N. Jokic C · #15 | 36 | 19 | 7-20 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | +4 |
 J. Murray G · #27 | 34 | 16 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 |
 C. Braun G · #0 | 29 | 6 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +4 |
 M. Bagley III F · #3 | 12 | 10 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +8 |
 B. Hopkins F · #13 | 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 |
 S. Jones F · #21 | 21 | 13 | 5-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +14 |
 T. Brazile F · #7 | 14 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
 D. DeRozan G · #10 | 22 | 11 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +11 |
 T. Jones G · #5 | 13 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +7 |
 A. Diallo F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Nnaji F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Holmes II F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Strawther G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 114 | 44-96 | 10-35 | 16-19 | 51 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 13 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DEN | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 44-96 | 41-92 |
| FG% | 46 | 45 |
| 3PT | 10-35 | 15-48 |
| 3P% | 29 | 31 |
| FT | 16-19 | 5-7 |
| FT% | 84 | 71 |
| REB | 51 | 45 |
| OR | 9 | 6 |
| DR | 42 | 39 |
| AST | 29 | 30 |
| STL | 4 | 2 |
| BLK | 2 | 5 |
| TO | 3 | 10 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 5 | 10 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 6 | 11 |
| FBPs | 8 | 21 |
| PIP | 54 | 44 |
| PF | 13 | 21 |
| LL | 27 | 5 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 93 | 6 |
At lock DEN 118.73–111.60 IND · 0.8 pts over 229.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp N. Jokic · DEN
13 REB · over 11.5A. Gordon · DEN
27 MIN · 12 PTSP. Siakam · IND
32 MIN · 23 PTSCameron Johnson · DEN
STAT · 29 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-12 FG · 2-5 3PTJamal Murray · DEN
STAT · 34 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-13 FG · 2-6 3PTLarry Nance Jr. · IND
STAT · 13 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-7 FG · 5-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · N. Jokic Under 11.5 reb
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Nuggets vs Pacers pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 229.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day