Miami Heat at LA Clippers
Final/OT · ClipperVision
117–116Last shot · Kobe Sanders misses heave jump shot
At lock: projected MIA 118.98–114.85 LAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 9:50 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 709856327
- Winner: Heat (56%)
- Score error (both teams)5
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hachimura points | — | 12 | 21 | off 9 |
| D. Garland points | — | 19 | 26 | off 7 |
| B. Adebayo points | — | 19 | 35 | off 16 |
| D. Mitchell points | — | 11 | 11 | off 0 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIA vs LAC
The model
How this number was built
MIA 118.98–114.85 LAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexLAC -5.1 vs MIA +1.3 · pred margin -5.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -0.5 vs -0.4 · back-to-back: LAC, MIA · model LAC 117.9–116.1 MIA
- Home field+2.8 pts to LAC
- RecordLAC 1-7 · MIA 3-5
- Market priorBlended 67% toward MIA -6.5 / total 233.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 33 | 19 | 26 | 29 | 10 | 117 |
| LAC | 24 | 43 | 20 | 20 | 9 | 116 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 10.8107–106Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 2.7107–107Rui Hachimura makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 4:49107–108
Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 4:49107–109
Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 3:56108–109
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 3:56109–109
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOTOT 3:06109–112
Darius Garland makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)
- SCOREOT 2:12112–112
Klay Thompson makes 23-foot running jump shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)
- SCOREOT 1:58112–114
Darius Garland makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Max Strus assists)
- SCOREOT 1:19112–116
Darius Garland makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Max Strus assists)
- SCOREOT 1:04114–116
Bam Adebayo makes 6-foot fade away jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)
- JUMP SHOTOT 1.0117–116
Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Antetokounmpo F · #7 | 41 | 27 | 8-20 | 0-2 | 11-13 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 2 | +11 |
 A. Wiggins F · #22 | 23 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -11 |
 B. Adebayo C · #13 | 41 | 35 | 14-20 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | +12 |
 K. Thompson G · #11 | 35 | 30 | 11-22 | 8-17 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +21 |
 D. Mitchell G · #2 | 43 | 11 | 5-13 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +4 |
 B. Portis F · #95 | 18 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | +2 |
 S. Fontecchio F · #0 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -19 |
 T. Hardaway Jr. G · #10 | 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 |
 P. Larsson G · #9 | 35 | 7 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -6 |
 R. Conwell G · #4 | 17 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
 M. Gardner F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Jovic F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Richards C · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Smith G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 117 | 43-100 | 10-40 | 21-26 | 50 | 35 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIA | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 43-100 | 43-90 |
| FG% | 43 | 48 |
| 3PT | 10-40 | 16-43 |
| 3P% | 25 | 37 |
| FT | 21-26 | 14-20 |
| FT% | 81 | 70 |
| REB | 50 | 47 |
| OR | 12 | 6 |
| DR | 38 | 41 |
| AST | 35 | 30 |
| STL | 10 | 7 |
| BLK | 6 | 7 |
| TO | 12 | 18 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 12 | 20 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 13 | 23 |
| FBPs | 17 | 17 |
| PIP | 54 | 40 |
| PF | 18 | 26 |
| LL | 9 | 20 |
| LC | 8 | 8 |
| LPCT | 26 | 68 |
At lock MIA 118.98–114.85 LAC · MIA by 4.1 pts vs LAC +5.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp K. Dunn · LAC
5 PTS · needs 2.5 moreG. Antetokounmpo · MIA
41 MIN · 27 PTSD. Jones Jr. · LAC
37 MIN · 12 PTSBam Adebayo · MIA
STAT · 41 MIN · 35 PTS · 14-20 FG · 1-3 3PTKlay Thompson · MIA
STAT · 35 MIN · 30 PTS · 11-22 FG · 8-17 3PTDarius Garland · LAC
STAT · 39 MIN · 26 PTS · 10-14 FG · 4-6 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · K. Dunn Over 7.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Heat vs Clippers pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LAC +5.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day