Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
Final/OT · GCSEN
113–120Last shot · Brice Sensabaugh misses heave jump shot
At lock: projected UTAH 114.97–121.16 NO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 8:29 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 592560089
- Winner: Pelicans (63%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reese points | — | 12 | 0 | off -12 |
| T. Murphy III points | — | 20 | 0 | off -20 |
| L. Markkanen points | — | 25 | 21 | off -4 |
| K. George points | — | 24 | 39 | off 15 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UTAH vs NO
The model
How this number was built
UTAH 114.97–121.16 NO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNO -7.3 vs UTAH -7.5 · pred margin +4.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -5.9 vs -7.3 · back-to-back: NO, UTAH · model NO 121.5–118.1 UTAH
- Home field+2.8 pts to NO
- RecordNO 4-4 · UTAH 1-7
- Market priorBlended 67% toward NO -5.5 / total 231.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 24 | 13 | 43 | 24 | 9 | 113 |
| NO | 24 | 18 | 28 | 34 | 16 | 120 |
Scoring plays
SCOREOT 3:54110–106Zion Williamson makes 3-foot turnaround jump shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)
- SCOREOT 3:22110–108
Saddiq Bey makes two point shot (Herbert Jones assists)
- TIP SHOTOT 2:37110–110
Jeremiah Fears makes tip shot
- FTOT 1:55110–111
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 1:55110–112
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCOREOT 1:22110–114
Saddiq Bey makes driving layup
- SCOREOT 39.3110–116
Saddiq Bey makes 6-foot step back jumpshot
- FTOT 9.5110–117
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 9.5110–118
Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2
JUMP SHOTOT 2.7113–118Lauri Markkanen makes 30-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)
- FTOT 0.9113–119
Dejounte Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0.9113–120
Dejounte Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTAH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Markkanen F · #23 | 39 | 21 | 6-15 | 5-12 | 4-6 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | -11 |
 J. Hayes C · #11 | 21 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -13 |
 K. George G · #3 | 44 | 39 | 14-27 | 2-9 | 9-13 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
 A. Bailey G · #19 | 35 | 15 | 6-14 | 1-9 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
 D. Peterson G · #22 | 30 | 7 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -12 |
 B. Sensabaugh F · #28 | 12 | 6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -14 |
 M. Bamba C · #44 | 15 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +8 |
 S. Mykhailiuk G · #10 | 17 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +12 |
 J. Okogie G · #21 | 26 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -12 |
 J. Green G · #5 | 23 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 |
 I. Collier G · #8 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 |
 K. Filipowski F · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Bradley C · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Bufkin G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 113 | 41-94 | 11-47 | 20-30 | 49 | 24 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 34 | 33 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTAH | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 41-94 | 38-89 |
| FG% | 44 | 43 |
| 3PT | 11-47 | 5-20 |
| 3P% | 23 | 25 |
| FT | 20-30 | 39-43 |
| FT% | 67 | 91 |
| REB | 49 | 48 |
| OR | 15 | 13 |
| DR | 34 | 35 |
| AST | 24 | 23 |
| STL | 8 | 9 |
| BLK | 7 | 6 |
| TO | 20 | 17 |
| TTO | 2 | 2 |
| ToTO | 22 | 19 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 19 | 15 |
| FBPs | 8 | 15 |
| PIP | 48 | 62 |
| PF | 33 | 26 |
| LL | 13 | 9 |
| LC | 23 | 23 |
| LPCT | 38 | 54 |
At lock UTAH 114.97–121.16 NO · NO by 6.2 pts vs NO -5.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp H. Jones · NO
2 PTS · needs 5.5 moreL. Markkanen · UTAH
39 MIN · 21 PTSKeyonte George · UTAH
STAT · 44 MIN · 39 PTS · 14-27 FG · 2-9 3PTZion Williamson · NO
STAT · 38 MIN · 23 PTS · 6-14 FG · 11-13 FTSaddiq Bey · NO
STAT · 29 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-14 FG · 2-4 3PTDejounte Murray · NO
STAT · 45 MIN · 20 PTS · 4-7 FG · 1-3 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · H. Jones Over 7.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Jazz vs Pelicans pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NO -5.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day