Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
Final · DAZN MEM
107–103Last shot · Cedric Coward misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected IND 113.04–118.61 MEM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 8:29 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 743558660
- Winner: Grizzlies (67%)
- Score error (both teams)19
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Boozer points | — | 15 | 10 | off -5 |
| P. Siakam points | — | 24 | 20 | off -4 |
| T. Haliburton points | — | 22 | 0 | off -22 |
| J. Grant points | — | 17 | 11 | off -6 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: IND vs MEM
The model
How this number was built
IND 113.04–118.61 MEM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMEM -0.0 vs IND -3.1 · pred margin +5.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -2.1 vs -3.8 · back-to-back: MEM, IND · model MEM 117.6–113.9 IND
- Home field+2.8 pts to MEM
- RecordMEM 6-2 · IND 3-6
- Market priorBlended 67% toward MEM -5.5 / total 227.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 32 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 107 |
| MEM | 24 | 28 | 30 | 21 | 103 |
Scoring plays
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:4797–93Quenton Jackson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 3:2897–95Cedric Coward makes 2-foot driving floating jump shot (Jaylen Wells assists)
- DUNK SHOT4th Quarter 2:5599–95
Larry Nance Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:1299–96
Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:47101–96
Pascal Siakam makes 17-foot jumper
- FT4th Quarter 1:26101–97
Zach Edey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:26101–98
Zach Edey makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:04103–98
Pascal Siakam makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
- FT4th Quarter 1:04104–98
Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 1
- 3PT4th Quarter 46.0104–101
Cameron Boozer makes 25-foot three pointer (Ty Jerome assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 28.2104–103
Ty Jerome makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Zach Edey assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 14.6107–103
Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| IND | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. Siakam F · #43 | 30 | 20 | 8-13 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +3 |
 I. Zubac C · #40 | 19 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -22 |
 A. Nembhard G · #2 | 38 | 22 | 8-15 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 |
 A. Nesmith G · #23 | 30 | 16 | 7-16 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 B. Smith G · #3 | 24 | 10 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +2 |
 L. Nance Jr. F · #22 | 14 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +18 |
 O. Toppin F · #1 | 19 | 11 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 |
 J. Slawson F · #18 | 6 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
 J. Walker F · #5 | 17 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -2 |
 J. Huff C · #32 | 14 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +10 |
 K. Brown G · #24 | 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
 Q. Jackson G · #29 | 22 | 13 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +15 |
 K. Oubre Jr. G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 107 | 40-88 | 12-37 | 15-17 | 43 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IND | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 40-88 | 41-91 |
| FG% | 45 | 45 |
| 3PT | 12-37 | 12-44 |
| 3P% | 32 | 27 |
| FT | 15-17 | 9-15 |
| FT% | 88 | 60 |
| REB | 43 | 48 |
| OR | 8 | 13 |
| DR | 35 | 35 |
| AST | 22 | 28 |
| STL | 10 | 8 |
| BLK | 7 | 5 |
| TO | 15 | 19 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 20 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 22 | 24 |
| FBPs | 19 | 14 |
| PIP | 46 | 54 |
| PF | 16 | 18 |
| LL | 9 | 8 |
| LC | 16 | 16 |
| LPCT | 39 | 48 |
At lock IND 113.04–118.61 MEM · MEM by 5.6 pts vs IND +6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp Z. Edey · MEM
11 PTS · covers 8.5P. Siakam · IND
30 MIN · 20 PTSC. Coward · MEM
33 MIN · 23 PTSTy Jerome · MEM
STAT · 29 MIN · 23 PTS · 10-20 FG · 2-10 3PTAndrew Nembhard · IND
STAT · 38 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-15 FG · 2-7 3PTAaron Nesmith · IND
STAT · 30 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-16 FG · 2-6 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · Z. Edey Over 8.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Pacers vs Grizzlies pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is IND +6.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day