Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Final · NBA League Pass
100–112Last shot · Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 12-foot two point shot
At lock: projected MIL 110.77–121.68 MIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 777260993
- Winner: Timberwolves (83%)
- Spread: MIN -10.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 233.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)21
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Gobert points | — | 10 | 10 | off 0 |
| T. Herro points | — | 21 | 21 | off 0 |
| J. McDaniels points | — | 15 | 13 | off -2 |
| R. Rollins points | — | 17 | 10 | off -7 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIL vs MIN
The model
How this number was built
MIL 110.77–121.68 MIN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIN +5.5 vs MIL -8.3 · pred margin +13.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.6 vs -8.0 · back-to-back: MIN, MIL · model MIN 121.2–104.9 MIL
- Home field+2.8 pts to MIN
- RecordMIN 5-3 · MIL 1-6
- Market priorBlended 68% toward MIN -11.5 / total 233.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 18 | 29 | 29 | 24 | 100 |
| MIN | 29 | 19 | 32 | 32 | 112 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 2:3791–102Myles Turner makes two point shot
FT4th Quarter 1:5391–103LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:5391–104
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:4193–104
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 1-foot layup (AJ Green assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:2193–107
Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:1395–107
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 1:1396–107
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:0296–110
Ayo Dosunmu makes 22-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 57.898–110
Tyler Herro makes 3-foot two point shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
- FT4th Quarter 27.998–111
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 27.998–112
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 18.1100–112
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 12-foot two point shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Kuzma F · #18 | 22 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -22 |
 J. Jaquez Jr. F · #24 | 28 | 19 | 8-17 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -14 |
 M. Turner C · #3 | 31 | 13 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -14 |
 T. Herro G · #11 | 31 | 21 | 8-18 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -10 |
 B. Burries G · #0 | 26 | 9 | 4-15 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | -4 |
 N. Ament F · #15 | 8 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
 J. Sims C · #00 | 15 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 |
 K. Ware C · #9 | 17 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +2 |
 A. Green G · #20 | 24 | 13 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +12 |
 R. Rollins G · #13 | 17 | 10 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
 K. Jakucionis G · #25 | 22 | 7 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8 |
 O. Dieng F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Markovic F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. LeVert G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Trent Jr. G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 100 | 38-99 | 15-49 | 9-12 | 53 | 24 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 35 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 38-99 | 41-96 |
| FG% | 38 | 43 |
| 3PT | 15-49 | 16-45 |
| 3P% | 31 | 36 |
| FT | 9-12 | 14-26 |
| FT% | 75 | 54 |
| REB | 53 | 59 |
| OR | 18 | 21 |
| DR | 35 | 38 |
| AST | 24 | 23 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 8 | 9 |
| TO | 16 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 17 | 11 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 20 | 16 |
| FBPs | 12 | 12 |
| PIP | 42 | 42 |
| PF | 21 | 15 |
| LL | 3 | 15 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 9 | 88 |
At lock MIL 110.77–121.68 MIN · MIN by 10.9 pts vs MIN -10.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp K. Jakucionis · MIL
7 PTS · needs 0.5 moreK. Kuzma · MIL
22 MIN · 2 PTSJ. McDaniels · MIN
29 MIN · 13 PTSLaMelo Ball · MIN
STAT · 33 MIN · 34 PTS · 12-21 FG · 6-13 3PTTyler Herro · MIL
STAT · 31 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-18 FG · 4-11 3PTJaime Jaquez Jr. · MIL
STAT · 28 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-17 FG · 2-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · K. Jakucionis Over 7.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bucks vs Timberwolves pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIN -10.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day