Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks
Final · NBA League Pass
115–100Last shot · Tobi Lawal makes 2-foot layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
At lock: projected SAC 113.49–121.68 DAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 810816231
- Winner: Mavericks (76%)
- Spread: SAC +9.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 234.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)23
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. LaVine points | — | 21 | 23 | off 2 |
| P.J. Washington points | — | 14 | 12 | off -2 |
| C. Flagg points | — | 22 | 17 | off -5 |
| D. Acuff Jr. points | — | 22 | 25 | off 3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SAC vs DAL
The model
How this number was built
SAC 113.49–121.68 DAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDAL -0.1 vs SAC -9.6 · pred margin +8.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -2.2 vs -7.7 · back-to-back: DAL, SAC · model DAL 118.9–111.3 SAC
- Home field+2.8 pts to DAL
- RecordDAL 4-3 · SAC 1-6
- Market priorBlended 68% toward DAL -7.5 / total 232.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 19 | 35 | 27 | 34 | 115 |
| DAL | 18 | 35 | 21 | 26 | 100 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 4:28101–89Naji Marshall makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
SCORE4th Quarter 4:10103–89Darius Acuff Jr. makes driving layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:59103–91
Naji Marshall makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
- 3PT4th Quarter 3:41106–91
Darius Acuff Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer
- FT4th Quarter 3:09106–92
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:09106–93
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:46109–93
Zach LaVine makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 2:18112–93
Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:29112–96
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:01112–98
Jett Howard makes two point shot (Naji Marshall assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 44.0115–98
Leaky Black makes 22-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 29.8115–100
Tobi Lawal makes 2-foot layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SAC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Sabonis F · #11 | 31 | 9 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 |
 D. Hunter F · #15 | 36 | 6 | 3-13 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
 P. Achiuwa F · #9 | 27 | 6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | +15 |
 Z. LaVine G · #8 | 28 | 23 | 8-14 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +9 |
 D. Acuff Jr. G · #5 | 37 | 25 | 10-21 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +1 |
 L. Black F · #19 | 25 | 12 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +5 |
 M. Monk G · #0 | 30 | 24 | 9-14 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +27 |
 D. Plowden G · #29 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
 N. Clifford G · #10 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
 E. Sharp G · #34 | 20 | 9 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +14 |
 A. Karaban F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Mogbo F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 115 | 43-82 | 19-43 | 10-15 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SAC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 43-82 | 32-78 |
| FG% | 52 | 41 |
| 3PT | 19-43 | 7-33 |
| 3P% | 44 | 21 |
| FT | 10-15 | 29-35 |
| FT% | 67 | 83 |
| REB | 42 | 35 |
| OR | 10 | 10 |
| DR | 32 | 25 |
| AST | 25 | 19 |
| STL | 9 | 11 |
| BLK | 4 | 1 |
| TO | 17 | 16 |
| TTO | 3 | 0 |
| ToTO | 20 | 16 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 19 | 15 |
| FBPs | 11 | 7 |
| PIP | 38 | 40 |
| PF | 24 | 15 |
| LL | 19 | 6 |
| LC | 17 | 17 |
| LPCT | 63 | 27 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Sabonis has grabbed 14+ boards in all 6 games (15.8 avg) in 37 minutes a night, and Sacramento is without backup bigs Raynaud and Cardwell. Dallas is missing Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama, so the glass is wide open.
At lock SAC 113.49–121.68 DAL · DAL by 8.2 pts vs SAC +9.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp D. Gafford · DAL
20 PTS · covers 9.5D. Sabonis · SAC
31 MIN · 9 PTSC. Martin · DAL
21 MIN · 5 PTSDarius Acuff Jr. · SAC
STAT · 37 MIN · 25 PTS · 10-21 FG · 2-8 3PTMalik Monk · SAC
STAT · 30 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-14 FG · 5-8 3PTZach LaVine · SAC
STAT · 28 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-14 FG · 5-9 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · D. Gafford Over 9.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Kings vs Mavericks pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SAC +9.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day