Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic
Final · MNMT
103–94Last shot · Franz Wagner misses 27-foot three point shot
At lock: projected WSH 111.60–115.31 ORL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 844371469
- Winner: Magic (62%)
- Spread: ORL -2.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 224.5 (66%)
- Score error (both teams)31
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Davis points | — | 21 | 27 | off 6 |
| K. George points | — | 15 | 22 | off 7 |
| D. Bane points | — | 19 | 20 | off 1 |
| F. Wagner points | — | 21 | 24 | off 3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WSH vs ORL
The model
How this number was built
WSH 111.60–115.31 ORL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexORL -0.3 vs WSH -4.5 · pred margin +4.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -1.4 vs -6.6 · back-to-back: ORL, WSH · model ORL 117.9–110.5 WSH
- Home field+2.8 pts to ORL
- RecordORL 2-5 · WSH 4-3
- Market priorBlended 68% toward ORL -2.5 / total 224.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 32 | 19 | 24 | 103 |
| ORL | 33 | 26 | 9 | 26 | 94 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 4:3191–86Desmond Bane makes driving layup (Franz Wagner assists)
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:1293–86Anthony Davis makes 20-foot jumper (Trae Young assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:4593–88
Franz Wagner makes driving layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:1995–88
Kyshawn George makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:0297–88
AJ Dybantsa makes 2-foot dunk (Trae Young assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:2899–88
Bilal Coulibaly makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Trae Young assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:1599–90
Tristan da Silva makes 1-foot two point shot (Franz Wagner assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:06101–90
Bilal Coulibaly makes alley oop dunk (Kyshawn George assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:00101–92
Franz Wagner makes driving layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 50.2101–94
Jase Richardson makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 38.3102–94
AJ Dybantsa makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 38.3103–94
AJ Dybantsa makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WSH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Davis F · #23 | 34 | 27 | 12-17 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +8 |
 A. Dybantsa F · #4 | 33 | 21 | 7-17 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +10 |
 K. George F · #18 | 37 | 22 | 9-15 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +8 |
 D. Ayton C · #8 | 24 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +4 |
 T. Young G · #3 | 34 | 15 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 3-5 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +9 |
 B. Carrington G · #7 | 19 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +3 |
 B. Coulibaly G · #0 | 33 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 |
 W. Riley G · #27 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 |
 T. Johnson G · #12 | 22 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +6 |
 K. Middleton F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 F. Okpara F · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Mann G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 103 | 40-75 | 9-24 | 14-18 | 35 | 26 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WSH | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 40-75 | 37-80 |
| FG% | 53 | 46 |
| 3PT | 9-24 | 11-39 |
| 3P% | 38 | 28 |
| FT | 14-18 | 9-10 |
| FT% | 78 | 90 |
| REB | 35 | 32 |
| OR | 6 | 7 |
| DR | 29 | 25 |
| AST | 26 | 23 |
| STL | 10 | 6 |
| BLK | 5 | 1 |
| TO | 14 | 17 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 18 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 21 | 22 |
| FBPs | 21 | 9 |
| PIP | 44 | 48 |
| PF | 17 | 19 |
| LL | 11 | 9 |
| LC | 11 | 11 |
| LPCT | 65 | 25 |
At lock WSH 111.60–115.31 ORL · ORL by 3.7 pts vs ORL -2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp B. Coulibaly · WSH
7 PTS · needs 0.5 moreA. Davis · WSH
34 MIN · 27 PTSJ. Cain · ORL
25 MIN · 10 PTSFranz Wagner · ORL
STAT · 38 MIN · 24 PTS · 10-18 FG · 1-4 3PTKyshawn George · WSH
STAT · 37 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-15 FG · 4-8 3PTAJ Dybantsa · WSH
STAT · 33 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-17 FG · 1-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · B. Coulibaly Over 7.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wizards vs Magic pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ORL -2.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day