Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
Final · NBA League Pass
108–104Last shot · Jay Huff misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected ATL 119.72–113.97 IND
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2656501416
- Winner: Hawks (68%)
- Spread: ATL -5.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 232.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)22
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Haliburton points | — | 22 | 0 | off -22 |
| P. Siakam points | — | 24 | 0 | off -24 |
| J. Johnson points | — | 22 | 0 | off -22 |
| N. Alexander-Walker points | — | 20 | 34 | off 14 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ATL vs IND
The model
How this number was built
ATL 119.72–113.97 IND · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexIND -3.1 vs ATL +1.1 · pred margin -8.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -3.8 vs +1.5 · back-to-back: IND, ATL · model IND 113.5–117.2 ATL
- Home field+2.8 pts to IND
- RecordIND 2-6 · ATL 4-4
- Market priorBlended 81% toward ATL -10.5 / total 226.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 37 | 31 | 19 | 21 | 108 |
| IND | 29 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 104 |
Scoring plays
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:34104–93Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)
FT4th Quarter 3:56104–94Kobe Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:56104–95
Kobe Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:26104–98
Braden Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:53104–99
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:53104–100
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:24104–101
Jay Huff makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:24104–102
Jay Huff makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:10105–102
CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:10106–102
CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:23106–104
Quenton Jackson makes 2-foot running dunk
- SCORE4th Quarter 10.2108–104
Onyeka Okongwu makes 12-foot two point shot (CJ McCollum assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ATL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 O. Okongwu F · #17 | 33 | 13 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | +2 |
 C. McCollum G · #3 | 32 | 13 | 4-17 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | +8 |
 N. Alexander-Walker G · #7 | 31 | 34 | 12-25 | 9-15 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +6 |
 L. Dort G · #0 | 31 | 14 | 5-10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +11 |
 D. Daniels G · #5 | 31 | 6 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
 C. Kispert F · #24 | 18 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -9 |
 A. Newell F · #14 | 17 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 |
 Z. Ejiofor F · #20 | 15 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 |
 A. Wiggins G · #2 | 24 | 7 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +7 |
 R. Dennis G · #10 | 8 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 |
 D. Finney-Smith F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Flemings G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 108 | 40-103 | 23-51 | 5-8 | 49 | 30 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ATL | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 40-103 | 38-80 |
| FG% | 39 | 48 |
| 3PT | 23-51 | 8-34 |
| 3P% | 45 | 24 |
| FT | 5-8 | 20-23 |
| FT% | 63 | 87 |
| REB | 49 | 39 |
| OR | 17 | 5 |
| DR | 32 | 34 |
| AST | 30 | 22 |
| STL | 12 | 12 |
| BLK | 4 | 9 |
| TO | 16 | 18 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 19 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 19 | 16 |
| FBPs | 10 | 14 |
| PIP | 26 | 54 |
| PF | 23 | 14 |
| LL | 15 | 2 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 95 | 1 |
At lock ATL 119.72–113.97 IND · 1.2 pts over 232.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp A. Nesmith · IND
0 PTS · needs 12.5 moreO. Okongwu · ATL
33 MIN · 13 PTSJ. Slawson · IND
41 MIN · 12 PTSNickeil Alexander-Walker · ATL
STAT · 31 MIN · 34 PTS · 12-25 FG · 9-15 3PTJay Huff · IND
STAT · 40 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-14 FG · 0-5 3PTQuenton Jackson · IND
STAT · 35 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-16 FG · 1-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · A. Nesmith Over 12.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Hawks vs Pacers pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 232.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day