MLSFinalAllianz Field

San Jose Earthquakes at Minnesota United FC

FT · Apple TV

1–3

San JoseMinnesota

Final

San Jose Earthquakes

14-10-10

Form DWDLD · 57 PF · 51 PA

Final

Minnesota United FC

11-11-12

Form DWWDW · 56 PF · 58 PA

SJ 30%Draw 22%MIN 48%

At lock: projected SJ 1.52–1.97 MIN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 175444417

Called it

Most typical sim

SJ 2 – MIN 2

Final

SJ 1 – MIN 3

Winner: Minnesota (49%)
Total: Under 3.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

SJ 1.52–1.97 MIN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MIN att -0.03 / def -0.14 · SJ att -0.11 / def -0.20 · model MIN 2.1–1.5 SJ
Home field
+0.3 goals to MIN
Record
MIN 11-11-12 · SJ 14-10-10
Market prior
Blended 60% toward MIN -165 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
SJ	1	0	1
MIN	0	3	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 45'
Goal! Minnesota United FC 0, San Jose Earthquakes 1. Preston Judd (San Jose Earthquakes) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Niko Tsakiris with a through ball.
GOAL2H 57'
Goal! Minnesota United FC 1, San Jose Earthquakes 1. Tomás Chancalay (Minnesota United FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Joaquín Pereyra following a fast break.
OWN GOAL2H 82'
Own Goal by Angus Gunn, San Jose Earthquakes. Minnesota United FC 2, San Jose Earthquakes 1.
GOAL2H 90'+4'
Goal! Minnesota United FC 3, San Jose Earthquakes 1. Nectarios Triantis (Minnesota United FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Morris Duggan.

Game leaders

Niko Tsakiris
totalshots 2
Daniel Munie
Pass 50
Daniel Munie
defensiveinterventions 18
Angus Gunn
SV 4

Jefferson Díaz
totalshots 3
Nectarios Triantis
Pass 44
Cherrion Valerius
defensiveinterventions 10
Drake Callender
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SJ	MIN
Fouls	14	16
Yellow Cards	3	3
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	2
Corner Kicks	2	8
Saves	4	2
Possession	49.4	50.6
SHOTS	8	14
ON GOAL	3	6
On Target %	0.4	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	329	320
Passes	412	415
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	5	7
Crosses	14	26
Cross %	0.4	0.3
Long Balls	45	56
Accurate Long Balls	23	32
Long Balls %	0.5	0.6
Blocked Shots	1	4
Effective Tackles	5	11
Tackles	11	17
Tackle %	0.5	0.6
Interceptions	17	14
Effective Clearances	31	17
Clearances	31	17

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

55%

At lock SJ 1.52–1.97 MIN · 0.01 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop M. Malone anytime goal · MIN
M. Malone anytime goal
N. Tsakiris · SJ
Midfielder
D. Munie · SJ
Defender
A. Gunn · SJ
Goalkeeper
J. Díaz · MIN
Defender
N. Triantis · MIN
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · M. Malone anytime goal

+155Push

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

San Jose vs Minnesota pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day