MLSFinalToyota Stadium

Colorado Rapids at FC Dallas

FT · Apple TV

1–3

ColoradoDallas

Final

Colorado Rapids

12-7-15

Form LLDWD · 47 PF · 50 PA

Final

FC Dallas

16-10-8

Form WDLWD · 62 PF · 51 PA

COL 23%Draw 22%DAL 55%

At lock: projected COL 1.13–1.90 DAL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 208999655

Called it

Most typical sim

COL 1 – DAL 2

Final

COL 1 – DAL 3

Winner: Dallas (55%)
Total: Over 2.5 (59%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

COL 1.13–1.90 DAL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): DAL att -0.04 / def -0.07 · COL att -0.29 / def -0.12 · model DAL 2.0–1.1 COL
Home field
+0.3 goals to DAL
Record
DAL 16-10-8 · COL 12-7-15
Market prior
Blended 60% toward DAL -120 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
COL	0	1	1
DAL	0	3	3

How the goals went in

GOAL2H 47'
Goal! FC Dallas 0, Colorado Rapids 1. Morgan Whittaker (Colorado Rapids) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Georgi Minoungou with a cross following a fast break.
GOAL2H 75'
Goal! FC Dallas 1, Colorado Rapids 1. Joaquín Valiente (FC Dallas) left footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Kaick following a corner.
GOAL2H 88'
Goal! FC Dallas 2, Colorado Rapids 1. Kaick (FC Dallas) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Nolan Norris.
GOAL2H 90'+2'
Goal! FC Dallas 3, Colorado Rapids 1. Santiago Moreno (FC Dallas) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Logan Farrington with a cross following a fast break.

Game leaders

Morgan Whittaker
totalshots 3
Loic Williams
Pass 47
Loic Williams
defensiveinterventions 15
Nico Hansen
SV 7

Petar Musa
totalshots 9
Ramiro
Pass 57
Osaze Urhoghide
defensiveinterventions 11

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	COL	DAL
Fouls	13	11
Yellow Cards	2	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	4	4
Corner Kicks	4	6
Saves	7	0
Possession	49.2	50.8
SHOTS	6	27
ON GOAL	1	10
On Target %	0.2	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	356	359
Passes	438	444
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	5	7
Crosses	14	22
Cross %	0.4	0.3
Long Balls	37	60
Accurate Long Balls	15	22
Long Balls %	0.4	0.4
Blocked Shots	2	11
Effective Tackles	10	7
Tackles	14	11
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Interceptions	11	12
Effective Clearances	38	11
Clearances	38	11

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

58%

At lock COL 1.13–1.90 DAL · 0.5 goals over 2.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop P. Musa · DAL
P. Musa anytime goal
M. Whittaker · COL
Forward
L. Williams · COL
Defender
N. Hansen · COL
Goalkeeper
Ramiro · DAL
Midfielder
O. Urhoghide · DAL
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · P. Musa anytime goal

+105Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Colorado vs Dallas pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 58% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day