Portland Timbers at Austin FC
FT · Apple TV
2–0
At lock: projected POR 1.53–1.62 ATX
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 192222036
- Winner: Austin (40%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (61%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
POR 1.53–1.62 ATX · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATX att -0.37 / def -0.25 · POR att -0.05 / def -0.17 · model ATX 1.5–1.7 POR
- Home field+0.3 goals to ATX
- RecordATX 8-10-16 · POR 13-7-14
- Market priorBlended 60% toward POR -145 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| ATX | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 3'
Goal! Austin FC 0, Portland Timbers 1. Ariel Lassiter (Portland Timbers) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Vincent Janssen.
- GOAL2H 70'
Goal! Austin FC 0, Portland Timbers 2. Kristoffer Velde (Portland Timbers) right footed shot from outside the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Ian Smith.
Game leaders
- Kristoffer Veldetotalshots 2
Joel WatermanPass 59- Finn Surmandefensiveinterventions 9
James PantemisSV 7
Christian Ramíreztotalshots 4- Guilherme BiroPass 76
- Guilherme Birodefensiveinterventions 11
Brad StuverSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| POR | ATX | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 5 | 5 |
| Saves | 7 | 2 |
| Possession | 42.3 | 57.7 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 343 | 465 |
| Passes | 391 | 520 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 0 | 10 |
| Crosses | 8 | 27 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 37 | 72 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 17 | 48 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 7 | 10 |
| Tackles | 12 | 17 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 5 |
| Effective Clearances | 24 | 16 |
| Clearances | 24 | 16 |
At lock POR 1.53–1.62 ATX · 0.3 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp V. Janssen anytime goal · POR
V. Janssen anytime goalK. Velde · POR
ForwardJ. Waterman · POR
DefenderF. Surman · POR
DefenderJ. Pantemis · POR
GoalkeeperC. Ramírez · ATX
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · V. Janssen anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Portland vs Austin pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day