Toronto FC at Atlanta United FC
FT · Apple TV
1–3
At lock: projected TOR 1.44–1.83 ATL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2122089506
- Winner: Atlanta (47%)
- Spread: TOR +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TOR 1.44–1.83 ATL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATL att -0.33 / def -0.23 · TOR att -0.26 / def -0.26 · model ATL 1.7–1.4 TOR
- Home field+0.3 goals to ATL
- RecordATL 9-6-18 · TOR 9-12-12
- Market priorBlended 60% toward ATL -105 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ATL | 2 | 1 | 3 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 22'
Goal! Atlanta United 1, Toronto FC 0. Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Aleksey Miranchuk with a through ball.
- GOAL1H 40'
Goal! Atlanta United 2, Toronto FC 0. Cooper Sanchez (Atlanta United) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Miguel Almirón.
- GOAL2H 51'
Goal! Atlanta United 3, Toronto FC 0. Aleksey Miranchuk (Atlanta United) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal.
- GOAL2H 79'
Goal! Atlanta United 3, Toronto FC 1. Lewis Morgan (Toronto FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Josh Sargent.
Game leaders
- Josh Sargenttotalshots 5
- Benjamín KuscevicPass 59
- Benjamín Kuscevicdefensiveinterventions 11
- Luka GavranSV 5
- Breel Embolototalshots 7
- Paulo DíazPass 61
- Tomás Jacobdefensiveinterventions 12
- Lucas HoyosSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOR | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 3 |
| Saves | 5 | 2 |
| Possession | 51.7 | 48.3 |
| SHOTS | 13 | 20 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 8 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 405 | 395 |
| Passes | 481 | 469 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 9 | 3 |
| Crosses | 27 | 9 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 57 | 60 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 32 | 27 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 4 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 6 |
| Tackles | 8 | 16 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 12 |
| Effective Clearances | 11 | 17 |
| Clearances | 11 | 17 |
At lock TOR 1.44–1.83 ATL · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Sargent · TOR
ForwardB. Kuscevic · TOR
DefenderL. Gavran · TOR
GoalkeeperB. Embolo · ATL
ForwardP. Díaz · ATL
DefenderT. Jacob · ATL
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Toronto vs Atlanta pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day