MLSFinalBC Place

Seattle Sounders FC at Vancouver Whitecaps

FT · Apple TV

1–5

SeattleVancouver

Final

Seattle Sounders FC

11-10-12

Form WLLDD · 44 PF · 46 PA

Final

Vancouver Whitecaps

18-7-8

Form WWWLW · 74 PF · 34 PA

SEA 26%Draw 22%VAN 52%

At lock: projected SEA 1.28–1.91 VAN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2021276697

Called it

Most typical sim

SEA 1 – VAN 2

Final

SEA 1 – VAN 5

Winner: Vancouver (52%)
Spread: VAN -0.5 covers (52%)
Total: Under 3.5 (61%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

SEA 1.28–1.91 VAN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VAN att +0.15 / def +0.21 · SEA att -0.22 / def +0.03 · model VAN 2.0–0.9 SEA
Home field
+0.3 goals to VAN
Record
VAN 18-7-8 · SEA 11-10-12
Market prior
Blended 60% toward VAN -115 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
SEA	0	1	1
VAN	3	2	5

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 1'
Goal! Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1, Seattle Sounders FC 0. Brian White (Vancouver Whitecaps FC) header from very close range to the top right corner. Assisted by Bruno Caicedo.
GOAL1H 9'
Goal! Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2, Seattle Sounders FC 0. Ryan Gauld (Vancouver Whitecaps FC) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Édier Ocampo.Goal confirmed following VAR Review.
GOAL1H 43'
Goal! Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3, Seattle Sounders FC 0. Mathías Laborda (Vancouver Whitecaps FC) header from the left side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Ryan Gauld with a cross.
GOAL2H 53'
Goal! Vancouver Whitecaps FC 4, Seattle Sounders FC 0. Brian White (Vancouver Whitecaps FC) left footed shot from very close range to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Bruno Caicedo.
GOAL2H 62'
Goal! Vancouver Whitecaps FC 4, Seattle Sounders FC 1. Jordan Morris (Seattle Sounders FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Albert Rusnák with a through ball.
GOAL2H 70'
Goal! Vancouver Whitecaps FC 5, Seattle Sounders FC 1. Aleksa Cvetkovic (Vancouver Whitecaps FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Cheikh Sabaly.

Game leaders

Dejan Joveljic
totalshots 3
Jackson Ragen
Pass 92
Alex Roldan
defensiveinterventions 7
Andy Thomas
SV 4

Brian White
totalshots 5
Tristan Blackmon
Pass 79
Tristan Blackmon
defensiveinterventions 16
Yohei Takaoka
SV 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SEA	VAN
Fouls	17	11
Yellow Cards	1	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	3	3
Corner Kicks	6	2
Saves	4	4
Possession	51.6	48.4
SHOTS	13	18
ON GOAL	5	9
On Target %	0.4	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	518	486
Passes	582	552
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.9
Accurate Crosses	3	3
Crosses	17	8
Cross %	0.2	0.4
Long Balls	43	51
Accurate Long Balls	23	33
Long Balls %	0.5	0.6
Blocked Shots	2	3
Effective Tackles	3	4
Tackles	7	9
Tackle %	0.4	0.4
Interceptions	6	17
Effective Clearances	13	23
Clearances	13	23

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

57%

At lock SEA 1.28–1.91 VAN · 0.3 goals under 3.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

D. Joveljic · SEA
Forward
J. Ragen · SEA
Defender
A. Roldan · SEA
Defender
A. Thomas · SEA
Goalkeeper
B. White · VAN
Forward
T. Blackmon · VAN
Defender

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Seattle vs Vancouver pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day