Minnesota United FC at LAFC
FT · Apple TV
3–1
At lock: projected MIN 1.34–1.99 LAFC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2054831935
- Winner: LAFC (52%)
- Spread: LAFC -0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MIN 1.34–1.99 LAFC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LAFC att -0.11 / def +0.11 · MIN att -0.03 / def -0.14 · model LAFC 1.9–1.2 MIN
- Home field+0.3 goals to LAFC
- RecordLAFC 12-11-10 · MIN 10-11-12
- Market priorBlended 60% toward LAFC -135 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| LAFC | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 29'
Goal! Los Angeles Football Club 0, Minnesota United FC 1. Joaquín Pereyra (Minnesota United FC) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal.
- GOAL1H 34'
Goal! Los Angeles Football Club 0, Minnesota United FC 2. Cherrion Valerius (Minnesota United FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Kelvin Yeboah with a headed pass.
- GOAL2H 81'
Goal! Los Angeles Football Club 0, Minnesota United FC 3. Joaquín Pereyra (Minnesota United FC) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Mauricio González.
- GOAL2H 89'
Goal! Los Angeles Football Club 1, Minnesota United FC 3. Sergio Vasquez (Los Angeles Football Club) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner.
Game leaders
- Joaquín Pereyratotalshots 2
- Jefferson DíazPass 62
- Jefferson Díazdefensiveinterventions 16
Drake CallenderSV 6
Sergi Palenciatotalshots 3
Eddie SeguraPass 54- Sergi Palenciadefensiveinterventions 11
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIN | LAFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 17 | 15 |
| Yellow Cards | 4 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 8 |
| Saves | 6 | 0 |
| Possession | 50.2 | 49.8 |
| SHOTS | 6 | 22 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 420 | 416 |
| Passes | 506 | 481 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 0 | 3 |
| Crosses | 5 | 29 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 68 | 50 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 25 | 37 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Blocked Shots | 0 | 9 |
| Effective Tackles | 13 | 9 |
| Tackles | 19 | 17 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 12 |
| Effective Clearances | 25 | 10 |
| Clearances | 25 | 10 |
At lock MIN 1.34–1.99 LAFC · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp A. Sieb · LAFC
A. Sieb Over 3.5 shotsJ. Pereyra · MIN
DefenderJ. Díaz · MIN
DefenderD. Callender · MIN
GoalkeeperS. Palencia · LAFC
DefenderE. Segura · LAFC
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · A. Sieb Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Minnesota vs LAFC pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 58% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day