MLSSat 12:30 PM CTStade Saputo

Nashville SC at CF Montréal

TV · Apple TV

Sat 12:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

56%

At lock NSH 2.02–0.92 MTL · 0.4 goals over 2.5

Players

S. Surridge · NSH
Forwards
P. Owusu · MTL
Forwards

Nashville SC

20-7-3

Form DWWWW · 64 PF · 23 PA

2.02

Projected

CF Montréal

6-7-17

Form DLLWL · 36 PF · 60 PA

0.92

NSH 62%Draw 23%MTL 16%

At lock: projected NSH 2.02–0.92 MTL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

MTL win

27%

26% (no-vig)

Total

2.94

2.5

Gap: +1 pts of win %, +0.44 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

NSH 2.02–0.92 MTL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MTL att -0.41 / def -0.31 · NSH att +0.04 / def +0.26 · model MTL 0.9–2.0 NSH
Home field
+0.3 goals to MTL
Record
MTL 6-7-17 · NSH 20-7-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Sam Surridge
goals 17
Sam Surridge
goalsleaders 17

Prince Owusu
goals 15
Prince Owusu
goalsleaders 15

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NSH	MTL
Goal Difference	41	-24
Total Goals	64	36
Assists	43	23
Goals Against	23	60

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

E. Saad anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSH
+360
22%

Nashville vs CF Montréal prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Nashville 2.0, CF Montréal 0.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: CF Montréal 16%, Nashville 62%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day