East Carolina Pirates at Memphis Tigers
TV · ESPN2
ECU 21.99–32.46 MEM
Projected ECU 21.99–32.46 MEM
Model vs market
Gap: -0.1 margin, -0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ECU vs MEM
The model
How this number was built
ECU 21.99–32.46 MEM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMEM +3.0 vs ECU -5.2 · pred margin +10.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.4 vs +3.0 · model MEM 31.3–22.7 ECU
- Home field+3.0 pts to MEM
- RecordMEM 5-2 · ECU 3-3
- Market priorBlended 68% toward MEM -10.5 / total 54.5
Season leaders
Emory WilliamsPass 68/104, 655 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT
TJ Engleman Jr.Rush 71 CAR, 490 YDS, 3 TD
Ray Ray Joseph Jr.Rec 29 REC, 272 YDS, 3 TD
Marcus StokesPass 121/181, 1841 YDS, 18 TD, 6 INT
Jaylin CarterRush 112 CAR, 780 YDS, 8 TD
Hunter TiptonRec 22 REC, 380 YDS, 5 TD
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ECU | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 23.5 | 35.4 |
| Total Yards | 339.2 | 511.7 |
| Yards Passing | 183.7 | 274.9 |
| Yards Rushing | 155.5 | 236.9 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 23.8 | 22.3 |
| Yards Allowed | 326.3 | 372.4 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 187.5 | 199.6 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 138.8 | 172.9 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
East Carolina vs Memphis prediction · Oct 22, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ECU +10.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects East Carolina 22.0, Memphis 32.5. Model win probability: Memphis 74%, East Carolina 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day