NCAAFThu 6:00 PM CTWalens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium

Liberty Flames at Kennesaw State Owls

TV · CBSSN

Thu 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

KENN +10.5

53%

LIB 29.90–20.45 KENN

Liberty Flames

5-1 · W5

187 PF · 92 PA

29.90

Projected

Kennesaw State Owls

1-5 · L5 · computer pick

134 PF · 141 PA

20.45

LIB 72%KENN 28%

Projected LIB 29.90–20.45 KENN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LIB -7.3

LIB -10.5

Total

50.0

50.5

Gap: +3.2 margin, -0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LIB vs KENN

The model

How this number was built

LIB 29.90–20.45 KENN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
KENN -11.4 vs LIB +0.7 · pred margin -9.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.6 vs +4.7 · model KENN 23.0–26.0 LIB
Home field
+3.0 pts to KENN
Record
KENN 1-5 · LIB 5-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward LIB -10.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Deshawn Purdie
Pass 70/114, 1050 YDS, 8 TD
Kam Davis
Rush 74 CAR, 524 YDS, 4 TD
Makai Jackson
Rec 22 REC, 515 YDS, 5 TD

Rickie Collins
Pass 129/184, 1302 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
Rickie Collins
Rush 64 CAR, 271 YDS, 5 TD
Javon Rogers
Rec 18 REC, 308 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LIB	KENN
Points Per Game	31.2	22.3
Total Yards	415.8	369.8
Yards Passing	192.8	226.2
Yards Rushing	223.0	143.7
Points Allowed Per Game	15.3	23.5
Yards Allowed	291.7	376.3
Pass Yards Allowed	167.5	233.3
Rush Yards Allowed	124.2	143.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Liberty vs Kennesaw St prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is KENN +10.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Liberty 29.9, Kennesaw St 20.4. Model win probability: Kennesaw St 28%, Liberty 72%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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