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Charlotte FC at Portland Timbers

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Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

60%

At lock CLT 1.62–1.61 POR · 0.3 goals under 3.5

Players

I. Toklomati · CLT
Forwards
K. Velde · POR
Forwards

Charlotte FC

13-8-9

Form DLWLW · 53 PF · 45 PA

1.62

Projected

Portland Timbers

9-7-14

Form DLDLL · 51 PF · 56 PA

1.61

CLT 38%Draw 25%POR 37%

At lock: projected CLT 1.62–1.61 POR · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

POR win

50%

60% (no-vig)

Total

3.22

3.5

Gap: -11 pts of win %, -0.28 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

CLT 1.62–1.61 POR · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): POR att -0.14 / def -0.20 · CLT att -0.08 / def -0.03 · model POR 1.6–1.6 CLT
Home field
+0.3 goals to POR
Record
POR 9-7-14 · CLT 13-8-9

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Idan Toklomati
goals 13
Idan Toklomati
goalsleaders 13

Kristoffer Velde
goals 8
Kristoffer Velde
goalsleaders 8

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CLT	POR
Goal Difference	8	-5
Total Goals	53	51
Assists	41	37
Goals Against	45	56

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

V. Janssen anytime goal
Anytime goal · POR
+120
45%
A. Saint-Maximin anytime goal
Anytime goal · CLT
+350
22%
J. Waterman anytime goal
Anytime goal · POR
+1300
7%
T. Ream anytime goal
Anytime goal · CLT
+2200
6%

Charlotte vs Portland prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 60% model probability. The model projected Charlotte 1.6, Portland 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Portland 37%, Charlotte 38%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day