MLSSat 9:30 PM CTSnapdragon Stadium

Seattle Sounders FC at San Diego FC

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Sat 9:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

63%

At lock SEA 1.41–1.66 SD · 0.4 goals under 3.5

Players

C. Roldan · SEA
Midfield
A. Dreyer · SD
Forwards

Seattle Sounders FC

11-9-10

Form DLWWW · 39 PF · 37 PA

1.41

Projected

San Diego FC

8-10-12

Form DDLDD · 53 PF · 56 PA

1.66

SEA 32%Draw 26%SD 42%

At lock: projected SEA 1.41–1.66 SD · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SD win

55%

57% (no-vig)

Total

3.07

3.5

Gap: -2 pts of win %, -0.43 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

SEA 1.41–1.66 SD · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SD att +0.01 / def -0.21 · SEA att -0.22 / def +0.09 · model SD 1.7–1.4 SEA
Home field
+0.3 goals to SD
Record
SD 8-10-12 · SEA 11-9-10

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cristian Roldan
goals 5
Cristian Roldan
goalsleaders 5

Anders Dreyer
goals 13
Anders Dreyer
goalsleaders 13

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SEA	SD
Goal Difference	2	-3
Total Goals	39	53
Assists	27	36
Goals Against	37	56

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

A. Dreyer anytime goal
Anytime goal · SD
+140
42%
E. Achouri anytime goal
Anytime goal · SD
+245
29%
C. Roldan anytime goal
Anytime goal · SEA
+650
13%
N. Tolo anytime goal
Anytime goal · SEA
+3000
6%

Seattle vs San Diego prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projected Seattle 1.4, San Diego 1.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: San Diego 42%, Seattle 32%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day