MLSSat 7:30 PM CTToyota Stadium

San Jose Earthquakes at FC Dallas

TV · Apple TV

Sat 7:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

53%

At lock SJ 1.46–2.08 DAL · 0.0 goals over 3.5

Players

P. Judd · SJ
Forwards
P. Musa · DAL
Forwards

San Jose Earthquakes

13-9-8

Form DDDWD · 52 PF · 42 PA

1.46

Projected

FC Dallas

14-9-7

Form DWLWD · 55 PF · 47 PA

2.08

SJ 26%Draw 23%DAL 51%

Projected SJ 1.46–2.08 DAL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

DAL win

62%

70% (no-vig)

Total

3.54

3.5

Gap: -8 pts of win %, +0.04 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

SJ 1.46–2.08 DAL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): DAL att -0.01 / def -0.10 · SJ att -0.08 / def -0.15 · model DAL 2.1–1.5 SJ
Home field
+0.3 goals to DAL
Record
DAL 14-9-7 · SJ 13-9-8

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Preston Judd
goals 16
Preston Judd
goalsleaders 16

Petar Musa
goals 20
Petar Musa
goalsleaders 20

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SJ	DAL
Goal Difference	10	8
Total Goals	52	55
Assists	39	39
Goals Against	42	47

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

San Jose vs Dallas prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected San Jose 1.5, Dallas 2.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Dallas 51%, San Jose 26%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day