Austin FC at Sporting Kansas City
TV · Apple TV
At lock ATX 1.73–1.70 SKC · 0.1 goals under 3.5
C. Ramírez · ATX
ForwardsAndré Luiz · SKC
Forwards
At lock: projected ATX 1.73–1.70 SKC · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: -9 pts of win %, -0.06 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
ATX 1.73–1.70 SKC · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SKC att -0.26 / def -0.52 · ATX att -0.33 / def -0.20 · model SKC 1.7–1.7 ATX
- Home field+0.3 goals to SKC
- RecordSKC 6-4-20 · ATX 7-10-13
Season leaders
Christian Ramírezgoals 9- Christian Ramírezgoalsleaders 9
- André Luizgoals 7
- André Luizgoalsleaders 7
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ATX | SKC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -18 | -39 |
| Total Goals | 38 | 36 |
| Assists | 27 | 26 |
| Goals Against | 56 | 75 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- M. Uzuni anytime goalAnytime goal · ATX+22031%
- F. Torres anytime goalAnytime goal · ATX+32024%
- P. Placheta anytime goalAnytime goal · ATX+55015%
- O. Svatok anytime goalAnytime goal · ATX+30006%
- E. Karic anytime goalAnytime goal · SKC+18006%
- Z. Bassong anytime goalAnytime goal · SKC+18006%
Austin vs Kansas City prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Austin 1.7, Kansas City 1.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Kansas City 37%, Austin 38%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day