MLSSat 7:30 PM CTAmerica First Field

St. Louis CITY SC at Real Salt Lake

TV · Apple TV

Sat 7:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

60%

At lock STL 1.65–1.55 RSL · 0.3 goals under 3.5

Players

S. Becher · STL
Forwards
S. Solans · RSL
Forwards

St. Louis CITY SC

14-9-7

Form DLDWW · 56 PF · 41 PA

1.65

Projected

Real Salt Lake

10-6-14

Form DDLWL · 45 PF · 48 PA

1.55

STL 39%Draw 25%RSL 35%

At lock: projected STL 1.65–1.55 RSL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

RSL win

48%

51% (no-vig)

Total

3.21

3.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, -0.29 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

STL 1.65–1.55 RSL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RSL att -0.23 / def -0.10 · STL att +0.05 / def -0.08 · model RSL 1.6–1.7 STL
Home field
+0.3 goals to RSL
Record
RSL 10-6-14 · STL 14-9-7

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Simon Becher
goals 9
Simon Becher
goalsleaders 9

Sergi Solans
goals 12
Sergi Solans
goalsleaders 12

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STL	RSL
Goal Difference	15	-3
Total Goals	56	45
Assists	37	36
Goals Against	41	48

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Downs anytime goal
Anytime goal · STL
+195
34%
T. Booth anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSL
+295
25%
L. de Fougerolles anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSL
+1400
7%

St. Louis vs Salt Lake prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 60% model probability. The model projected St. Louis 1.6, Salt Lake 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Salt Lake 35%, St. Louis 39%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day