MLSSat 7:30 PM CTShell Energy Stadium

Minnesota United FC at Houston Dynamo FC

TV · Apple TV

Sat 7:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

56%

At lock MIN 1.29–1.65 HOU · 0.4 goals over 2.5

Players

K. Yeboah · MIN
Forwards
Guilherme Augusto · HOU
Forwards

Minnesota United FC

8-10-12

Form DDDLL · 47 PF · 55 PA

1.29

Projected

Houston Dynamo FC

13-8-9

Form DDDLD · 41 PF · 39 PA

1.65

MIN 29%Draw 26%HOU 45%

At lock: projected MIN 1.29–1.65 HOU · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

HOU win

58%

61% (no-vig)

Total

2.94

2.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, +0.44 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

MIN 1.29–1.65 HOU · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): HOU att -0.30 / def +0.04 · MIN att -0.06 / def -0.21 · model HOU 1.6–1.3 MIN
Home field
+0.3 goals to HOU
Record
HOU 13-8-9 · MIN 8-10-12

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kelvin Yeboah
goals 17
Kelvin Yeboah
goalsleaders 17

Guilherme Augusto
goals 16
Guilherme Augusto
goalsleaders 16

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MIN	HOU
Goal Difference	-8	2
Total Goals	47	41
Assists	35	23
Goals Against	55	39

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

L. Foster anytime goal
Anytime goal · HOU
+215
32%
M. Malone anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIN
+260
28%
M. Boxall anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIN
+2200
6%
M. Saracchi anytime goal
Anytime goal · HOU
+1600
6%
C. Harvey anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIN
+1900
6%

Minnesota vs Houston prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Minnesota 1.3, Houston 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Houston 45%, Minnesota 29%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day