MLSSat 6:30 PM CTAudi Field

FC Cincinnati at D.C. United

TV · Apple TV

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

52%

At lock CIN 1.97–1.78 DC · 0.3 goals over 3.5

Players

K. Denkey · CIN
Forwards
T. Baribo · DC
Forwards

FC Cincinnati

10-9-11

Form DLLWL · 62 PF · 71 PA

1.97

Projected

D.C. United

7-12-11

Form DLWLD · 38 PF · 53 PA

1.78

CIN 42%Draw 23%DC 35%

At lock: projected CIN 1.97–1.78 DC · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

DC win

46%

45% (no-vig)

Total

3.75

3.5

Gap: +1 pts of win %, +0.25 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

CIN 1.97–1.78 DC · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): DC att -0.38 / def -0.29 · CIN att +0.03 / def -0.37 · model DC 1.8–2.0 CIN
Home field
+0.3 goals to DC
Record
DC 7-12-11 · CIN 10-9-11

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kévin Denkey
goals 17
Kévin Denkey
goalsleaders 17

Tai Baribo
goals 16
Tai Baribo
goalsleaders 16

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CIN	DC
Goal Difference	-10	-14
Total Goals	60	37
Assists	44	23
Goals Against	70	51

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Doudera anytime goal
Anytime goal · CIN
+600
14%
T. Malacia anytime goal
Anytime goal · CIN
+800
11%
A. Dozzell anytime goal
Anytime goal · DC
+1000
9%
K. Rowles anytime goal
Anytime goal · DC
+1800
6%

Cincinnati vs D.C. United prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Cincinnati 2.0, D.C. United 1.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: D.C. United 35%, Cincinnati 42%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day