MLSSat 6:30 PM CTSubaru Park

New England Revolution at Philadelphia Union

TV · Apple TV

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

54%

At lock NE 1.19–2.28 PHI · 0.0 goals under 3.5

Players

C. Gil · NE
Midfield
M. Iloski · PHI
Forwards

New England Revolution

16-4-10

Form DWLLW · 49 PF · 41 PA

1.19

Projected

Philadelphia Union

13-7-10

Form DWWWW · 61 PF · 48 PA

2.28

NE 18%Draw 21%PHI 61%

At lock: projected NE 1.19–2.28 PHI · most likely 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

PHI win

72%

77% (no-vig)

Total

3.47

3.5

Gap: -5 pts of win %, -0.03 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

NE 1.19–2.28 PHI · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PHI att +0.13 / def +0.01 · NE att -0.17 / def -0.10 · model PHI 2.3–1.2 NE
Home field
+0.3 goals to PHI
Record
PHI 13-7-10 · NE 16-4-10

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Carles Gil
goals 12
Carles Gil
goalsleaders 12

Milan Iloski
goals 19
Milan Iloski
goalsleaders 19

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NE	PHI
Goal Difference	8	13
Total Goals	49	61
Assists	37	44
Goals Against	41	48

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

K. Wagner anytime goal
Anytime goal · PHI
+1700
6%
T. Smith anytime goal
Anytime goal · NE
+2500
6%

New England vs Philadelphia prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected New England 1.2, Philadelphia 2.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Philadelphia 61%, New England 18%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day