MLSSat 6:30 PM CTMercedes-Benz Stadium

Chicago Fire FC at Atlanta United FC

TV · Apple TV

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

62%

At lock CHI 1.66–1.45 ATL · 0.4 goals under 3.5

Players

M. Haile-Selassie · CHI
Midfield
A. Miranchuk · ATL
Midfield

Chicago Fire FC

14-6-10

Form DLWWW · 52 PF · 44 PA

1.66

Projected

Atlanta United FC

8-6-16

Form DWLDW · 37 PF · 51 PA

1.45

CHI 42%Draw 26%ATL 33%

At lock: projected CHI 1.66–1.45 ATL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ATL win

45%

48% (no-vig)

Total

3.10

3.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, -0.40 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

CHI 1.66–1.45 ATL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATL att -0.35 / def -0.18 · CHI att -0.03 / def -0.12 · model ATL 1.4–1.7 CHI
Home field
+0.3 goals to ATL
Record
ATL 8-6-16 · CHI 14-6-10

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Maren Haile-Selassie
goals 11
Maren Haile-Selassie
goalsleaders 11

Alexey Miranchuk
goals 6
Alexey Miranchuk
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CHI	ATL
Goal Difference	8	-14
Total Goals	52	37
Assists	31	23
Goals Against	44	51

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

R. Lewandowski anytime goal
Anytime goal · CHI
+120
45%
A. Hanche-Olsen anytime goal
Anytime goal · CHI
+1800
6%
M. Mbokazi anytime goal
Anytime goal · CHI
+2200
6%

Chicago vs Atlanta prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 62% model probability. The model projected Chicago 1.7, Atlanta 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Atlanta 33%, Chicago 42%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day