MLSSat 6:30 PM CTInter&Co Stadium

New York City FC at Orlando City SC

TV · Apple TV

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

54%

At lock NYC 1.59–1.89 ORL · 0.0 goals under 3.5

Players

N. Fernández · NYC
Midfield
M. Ojeda · ORL
Midfield

New York City FC

8-10-12

Form DLLDL · 43 PF · 41 PA

1.59

Projected

Orlando City SC

12-5-13

Form DDWLL · 58 PF · 70 PA

1.89

NYC 32%Draw 24%ORL 44%

At lock: projected NYC 1.59–1.89 ORL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ORL win

56%

55% (no-vig)

Total

3.48

3.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, -0.02 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

NYC 1.59–1.89 ORL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ORL att +0.12 / def -0.34 · NYC att -0.23 / def +0.07 · model ORL 1.9–1.6 NYC
Home field
+0.3 goals to ORL
Record
ORL 12-5-13 · NYC 8-10-12

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Nicolás Fernández
goals 15
Nicolás Fernández
goalsleaders 15

Martín Ojeda
goals 15
Martín Ojeda
goalsleaders 15

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NYC	ORL
Goal Difference	2	-12
Total Goals	43	58
Assists	28	42
Goals Against	41	70

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

A. Griezmann anytime goal
Anytime goal · ORL
+150
40%
D. Dike anytime goal
Anytime goal · ORL
+200
33%
M. Pasalic anytime goal
Anytime goal · ORL
+295
25%
B. Ojeda anytime goal
Anytime goal · ORL
+1000
9%
A. O'Neill anytime goal
Anytime goal · NYC
+1400
7%
J. Sands anytime goal
Anytime goal · NYC
+2200
6%

NYCFC vs Orlando prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected NYCFC 1.6, Orlando 1.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Orlando 44%, NYCFC 32%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day