MLSSat 4:30 PM CTSports Illustrated Stadium

Inter Miami CF at Red Bull New York

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Sat 4:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

55%

At lock MIA 2.35–1.56 RBNY · 0.4 goals over 3.5

Players

L. Messi · MIA
Forwards
J. Hall · RBNY
Forwards

Inter Miami CF

15-10-5

Form DWWLD · 73 PF · 51 PA

2.35

Projected

Red Bull New York

10-6-14

Form DLWLW · 39 PF · 56 PA

1.56

MIA 54%Draw 21%RBNY 25%

At lock: projected MIA 2.35–1.56 RBNY · most likely 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

RBNY win

35%

36% (no-vig)

Total

3.91

3.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.41 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

MIA 2.35–1.56 RBNY · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RBNY att -0.30 / def -0.16 · MIA att +0.33 / def -0.15 · model RBNY 1.6–2.4 MIA
Home field
+0.3 goals to RBNY
Record
RBNY 10-6-14 · MIA 15-10-5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Lionel Messi
goals 25
Lionel Messi
goalsleaders 25

Julian Hall
goals 11
Julian Hall
goalsleaders 11

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MIA	RBNY
Goal Difference	22	-17
Total Goals	73	39
Assists	50	29
Goals Against	51	56

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

E. Choupo-Moting anytime goal
Anytime goal · RBNY
+150
40%
J. Ruvalcaba anytime goal
Anytime goal · RBNY
+195
34%
R. De Paul anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIA
+650
13%

Miami vs Red Bull NY prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Miami 2.4, Red Bull NY 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Red Bull NY 25%, Miami 54%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day