Toronto FC at Columbus Crew
TV · Apple TV
At lock TOR 1.16–1.93 CLB · 0.4 goals under 3.5
D. Sallói · TOR
ForwardsT. Habroune · CLB
Midfield
At lock: projected TOR 1.16–1.93 CLB · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: -9 pts of win %, -0.41 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
TOR 1.16–1.93 CLB · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CLB att -0.09 / def -0.06 · TOR att -0.27 / def -0.16 · model CLB 1.9–1.2 TOR
- Home field+0.3 goals to CLB
- RecordCLB 10-5-15 · TOR 8-12-10
Season leaders
Dániel Sallóigoals 8- Dániel Sallóigoalsleaders 8
- Taha Habrounegoals 5
- Taha Habrounegoalsleaders 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOR | CLB | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -9 | -1 |
| Total Goals | 46 | 46 |
| Assists | 33 | 27 |
| Goals Against | 55 | 47 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- A. Zaroury anytime goalAnytime goal · CLB+33023%
- N. Dorsch anytime goalAnytime goal · TOR+90010%
- J. Osorio anytime goalAnytime goal · TOR+14007%
- S. Moreira anytime goalAnytime goal · CLB+18006%
- E. Bailly anytime goalAnytime goal · CLB+22006%
- R. Laryea anytime goalAnytime goal · TOR+17006%
Toronto vs Columbus prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projected Toronto 1.2, Columbus 1.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Columbus 54%, Toronto 22%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day