EPLFinalAnfield

Arsenal at Liverpool

FT · NBCSN

1–0

ArsenalLiverpool

Final

Arsenal

8-0-1

Form WWWLW · 15 PF · 5 PA

Final

Liverpool

4-3-2

Form DLLWW · 14 PF · 10 PA

ARS 47%Draw 26%LIV 26%

At lock: projected ARS 1.46–1.02 LIV

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2633485996

Called it

Most typical sim

ARS 1 – LIV 1

Final

ARS 1 – LIV 0

Winner: Arsenal (47%)
Spread: LIV +0.5 covers (53%)
Total: Under 2.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

ARS 1.46–1.02 LIV · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LIV att +0.09 / def +0.06 · ARS att +0.09 / def +0.50 · model LIV 1.0–1.4 ARS
Home field
+0.3 goals to LIV
Record
LIV 4-3-2 · ARS 8-0-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ARS +145 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
ARS	1	0	1
LIV	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 16'
Goal! Liverpool 0, Arsenal 1. Kai Havertz (Arsenal) left footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Declan Rice with a cross.

Game leaders

Declan Rice
totalshots 3
Declan Rice
Pass 38
Ezri Konsa
defensiveinterventions 17

Florian Wirtz
totalshots 3
Virgil van Dijk
Pass 55
Jérémy Jacquet
defensiveinterventions 12
Alisson Becker
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ARS	LIV
Fouls	10	18
Yellow Cards	4	4
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	3	2
Corner Kicks	4	7
Saves	0	2
Possession	43.6	56.4
SHOTS	10	17
ON GOAL	3	0
On Target %	0.3	0.0
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	269	377
Passes	370	461
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.8
Accurate Crosses	4	5
Crosses	10	33
Cross %	0.4	0.2
Long Balls	67	46
Accurate Long Balls	22	14
Long Balls %	0.3	0.3
Blocked Shots	3	9
Effective Tackles	16	11
Tackles	23	17
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Interceptions	6	10
Effective Clearances	36	22
Clearances	36	22

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

50%

At lock ARS 1.46–1.02 LIV · 0.02 goals under 2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop M. Merino · ARS
M. Merino Over 0.5 SOT
D. Rice · ARS
Midfielder
E. Konsa · ARS
Defender
F. Wirtz · LIV
Midfielder
V. van Dijk · LIV
Defender
J. Jacquet · LIV
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · M. Merino Over 0.5 SOT

-120Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Arsenal vs Liverpool pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day