Brentford at Brighton & Hove Albion
FT · Peacock
0–2
At lock: projected BRE 1.24–1.69 BHA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2667041234
- Winner: Brighton (49%)
- Spread: BRE +0.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BRE 1.24–1.69 BHA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): BHA att +0.13 / def +0.13 · BRE att -0.06 / def -0.02 · model BHA 1.8–1.1 BRE
- Home field+0.3 goals to BHA
- RecordBHA 7-1-2 · BRE 3-5-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BHA -125 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRE | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BHA | 2 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 15'
Goal! Brighton and Hove Albion 1, Brentford 0. Diego Gómez (Brighton and Hove Albion) left footed shot from outside the box to the top left corner.
- GOAL1H 42'
Goal! Brighton and Hove Albion 2, Brentford 0. Pascal Groß (Brighton and Hove Albion) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the top right corner.
Game leaders
- Kevin Schadetotalshots 1
- Caoimhín KelleherPass 26
- Kristoffer Ajerdefensiveinterventions 11
- Caoimhín KelleherSV 4
- Yasin Ayaritotalshots 4
- Pascal GrossPass 79
- Luka Vuskovicdefensiveinterventions 7
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BRE | BHA | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 7 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 1 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 7 |
| Saves | 4 | 0 |
| Possession | 24.7 | 75.3 |
| SHOTS | 5 | 20 |
| ON GOAL | 0 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 142 | 590 |
| Passes | 215 | 651 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 15 |
| Crosses | 7 | 37 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 60 | 61 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 19 | 45 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 5 |
| Effective Tackles | 9 | 10 |
| Tackles | 11 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 4 |
| Effective Clearances | 32 | 18 |
| Clearances | 32 | 18 |
At lock BRE 1.24–1.69 BHA · 0.4 goals over 2.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp P. David · BHA
P. David Over 3.5 shotsK. Schade · BRE
MidfielderC. Kelleher · BRE
GoalkeeperK. Ajer · BRE
DefenderY. Ayari · BHA
MidfielderP. Gross · BHA
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · P. David Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Brentford vs Brighton pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 60% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day