Newcastle United at Fulham
FT · USA Net
1–1
At lock: projected NEW 1.13–1.58 FUL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2616708377
- Winner: Fulham (47%)
- Spread: NEW +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NEW 1.13–1.58 FUL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FUL att -0.21 / def +0.03 · NEW att -0.03 / def -0.12 · model FUL 1.4–1.2 NEW
- Home field+0.3 goals to FUL
- RecordFUL 2-4-4 · NEW 3-3-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward FUL -105 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEW | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| FUL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 80'
Goal! Fulham 0, Newcastle United 1. Jacob Murphy (Newcastle United) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner.
- GOAL2H 83'
Goal! Fulham 1, Newcastle United 1. Rodrigo Muniz (Fulham) right footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner.
Game leaders
- Harvey Barnestotalshots 3
- Malick ThiawPass 45
- Lewis Halldefensiveinterventions 14
- Lukás HornícekSV 5
- Oscar Bobbtotalshots 2
Calvin BasseyPass 65- David Affengruberdefensiveinterventions 12
- Bernd LenoSV 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NEW | FUL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 3 |
| Saves | 5 | 4 |
| Possession | 42.1 | 57.9 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 11 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 294 | 426 |
| Passes | 376 | 522 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 3 |
| Crosses | 11 | 14 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 68 | 66 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 26 | 30 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 8 |
| Tackles | 16 | 12 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 6 |
| Effective Clearances | 33 | 25 |
| Clearances | 33 | 25 |
At lock NEW 1.13–1.58 FUL · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp R. Muniz · FUL
R. Muniz Over 3.5 shotsH. Barnes · NEW
MidfielderM. Thiaw · NEW
DefenderL. Hall · NEW
MidfielderL. Hornícek · NEW
GoalkeeperO. Bobb · FUL
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · R. Muniz Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Newcastle vs Fulham pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day