EPLSat 9:00 AM CTStamford Bridge

Leeds United at Chelsea

LeedsChelsea

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 2.5

-135 at lock54%

Model projects LEE 1.15 – 1.69 CHE · below the strong-play bar (edge -3.9%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

D. Calvert-Lewin · LEE
Forward
M. Rogers · CHE
Midfielder

Projected prop · Morgan Rogers (CHE) 0.44 goals · 0.50 goals/game this season, × 0.89 for the projected CHE score

Line not posted yet

Leeds United

3-5-2

Form WLDDL · 10 PF · 8 PA

1.15

Projected

Chelsea

5-1-4

Form LWLLW · 19 PF · 16 PA

1.69

LEE 26%Draw 24%CHE 50%

At lock: projected LEE 1.15–1.69 CHE · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CHE win

62%

68% (no-vig)

Total

2.84

2.5

Gap: -6 pts of win %, +0.34 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

LEE 1.15–1.69 CHE · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CHE att +0.04 / def -0.07 · LEE att -0.20 / def -0.03 · model CHE 1.7–1.2 LEE
Home field
+0.3 goals to CHE
Record
CHE 5-1-4 · LEE 3-5-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Dominic Calvert-Lewin
goals 3
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
goalsleaders 3

Morgan Rogers
goals 5
Morgan Rogers
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LEE	CHE
Goal Difference	2	3
Total Goals	10	19
Assists	6	14
Goals Against	8	16

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Leeds vs Chelsea prediction · Nov 21, 2026

The model projects Leeds 1.1, Chelsea 1.7. Model win probability: Chelsea 50%, Leeds 26%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day