EPLFinalEmirates Stadium

Hull City at Arsenal

FT · Peacock

0–1

HullArsenal

Final

Hull City

2-5-3

Form LDDLD · 11 PF · 11 PA

Final

Arsenal

9-0-1

Form WWWLW · 15 PF · 5 PA

HUL 4%Draw 11%ARS 84%

At lock: projected HUL 0.38–2.62 ARS

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1670859110

Called it

Most typical sim

HUL 0 – ARS 3

Final

HUL 0 – ARS 1

Winner: Arsenal (85%)
Spread: HUL +2.5 covers (59%)
Total: Under 3.5 (64%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

HUL 0.38–2.62 ARS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ARS att +0.09 / def +0.50 · HUL att -0.17 / def -0.09 · model ARS 1.9–0.7 HUL
Home field
+0.3 goals to ARS
Record
ARS 9-0-1 · HUL 2-5-3
Market prior
Blended 80% toward ARS -700 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
HUL	0	0	0
ARS	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL2H 72'
Goal! Arsenal 1, Hull City 0. Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner.

Game leaders

Elliot Stroud
totalshots 2
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Pass 25
Nobel Mendy
defensiveinterventions 12
Konstantinos Tzolakis
SV 9

Noni Madueke
totalshots 4
Bruno Guimarães
Pass 82
Ezri Konsa
defensiveinterventions 16
David Raya
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HUL	ARS
Fouls	15	6
Yellow Cards	5	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	4
Corner Kicks	4	7
Saves	9	2
Possession	33.1	66.9
SHOTS	7	21
ON GOAL	2	10
On Target %	0.3	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	190	490
Passes	272	569
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.9
Accurate Crosses	6	5
Crosses	15	21
Cross %	0.4	0.2
Long Balls	73	47
Accurate Long Balls	26	21
Long Balls %	0.4	0.4
Blocked Shots	2	6
Effective Tackles	9	6
Tackles	15	9
Tackle %	0.6	0.7
Interceptions	11	6
Effective Clearances	31	28
Clearances	31	28

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

60%

At lock HUL 0.38–2.62 ARS · 0.5 goals under 3.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop K. Tzolakis · HUL
K. Tzolakis Over 4.5 saves
E. Stroud · HUL
Midfielder
L. Gourna-Douath · HUL
Midfielder
N. Mendy · HUL
Defender
N. Madueke · ARS
Forward
B. Guimarães · ARS
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · K. Tzolakis Over 4.5 saves

-120Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Hull vs Arsenal pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 60% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day