EPLFinalPortman Road

AFC Bournemouth at Ipswich Town

FT · Peacock

2–1

BournemouthIpswich

Final

AFC Bournemouth

4-3-3

Form DWWWW · 16 PF · 14 PA

Final

Ipswich Town

3-2-5

Form DDDLW · 15 PF · 20 PA

BOU 43%Draw 26%IPS 32%

At lock: projected BOU 1.47–1.23 IPS

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1955931538

Called it

Most typical sim

BOU 1 – IPS 1

Final

BOU 2 – IPS 1

Winner: Bournemouth (42%)
Spread: IPS +0.5 covers (58%)
Total: Over 2.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

BOU 1.47–1.23 IPS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): IPS att -0.25 / def -0.34 · BOU att +0.02 / def +0.03 · model IPS 1.2–1.9 BOU
Home field
+0.3 goals to IPS
Record
IPS 3-2-5 · BOU 4-3-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward BOU +100 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
BOU	1	1	2
IPS	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 5'
Goal! Ipswich Town 0, Bournemouth 1. Evanilson (Bournemouth) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom left corner.
OWN GOAL2H 46'
Own Goal by Leif Davis, Ipswich Town. Ipswich Town 0, Bournemouth 2.
GOAL2H 73'
Goal! Ipswich Town 1, Bournemouth 2. Jack Clarke (Ipswich Town) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.

Game leaders

Evanilson
totalshots 4
Adrien Truffert
Pass 42
António Silva
defensiveinterventions 14
Djordje Petrovic
SV 1

Julio Enciso
totalshots 4
Exequiel Palacios
Pass 70
Dara O'Shea
defensiveinterventions 13
Christian Walton
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BOU	IPS
Fouls	20	6
Yellow Cards	3	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	2
Corner Kicks	7	2
Saves	1	3
Possession	44.1	55.9
SHOTS	15	10
ON GOAL	4	2
On Target %	0.3	0.2
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	1
Accurate Passes	300	399
Passes	396	508
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	1	2
Crosses	12	13
Cross %	0.1	0.2
Long Balls	70	68
Accurate Long Balls	25	28
Long Balls %	0.4	0.4
Blocked Shots	5	3
Effective Tackles	10	10
Tackles	16	17
Tackle %	0.6	0.6
Interceptions	15	7
Effective Clearances	26	20
Clearances	26	20

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

55%

At lock BOU 1.47–1.23 IPS · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop A. Scott · BOU
A. Scott Over 1.5 shots
Evanilson · BOU
Forward
A. Truffert · BOU
Defender
A. Silva · BOU
Defender
D. Petrovic · BOU
Goalkeeper
J. Enciso · IPS
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · A. Scott Over 1.5 shots

-115Push

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Bournemouth vs Ipswich pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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