Ipswich Town at Tottenham Hotspur
@Model projects IPS 1.07 – 1.86 TOT · below the strong-play bar (edge -5.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
L. Davis · IPS
DefenderJ. van Hecke · TOT
Defender
Projected prop · Jan Paul van Hecke (TOT) 0.24 goals · 0.20 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected TOT score
At lock: projected IPS 1.07–1.86 TOT · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2
Model vs market
Gap: -11 pts of win %, +0.43 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
IPS 1.07–1.86 TOT · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TOT att -0.16 / def -0.05 · IPS att -0.25 / def -0.34 · model TOT 1.9–1.1 IPS
- Home field+0.3 goals to TOT
- RecordTOT 3-3-4 · IPS 3-2-5
Season leaders
- Leif Davisgoals 2
- Leif Davisgoalsleaders 2
Jan Paul van Heckegoals 2- Jan Paul van Heckegoalsleaders 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IPS | TOT | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -5 | -1 |
| Total Goals | 15 | 10 |
| Assists | 10 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 20 | 11 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ipswich vs Spurs prediction · Nov 21, 2026
The model projects Ipswich 1.1, Spurs 1.9. Model win probability: Spurs 56%, Ipswich 22%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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