Champions LeagueFinalStamford Bridge

AEK Athens at Shakhtar Donetsk

FT · Paramount+

AEK Athens
1-0-1
Form DWWDW · 2 PF · 3 PA
1
Final
Shakhtar Donetsk
1-1-0
Form DDLLD · 4 PF · 2 PA
3
AEK 43%Draw 26%SHK 30%

Model: AEK 1.43–1.15 SHK

The model

How this number was built

AEK 1.43–1.15 SHK · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

  • Attack / defense
    SHK -0.1 off · AEK -0.0 off, shrunk 14%
  • Home field
    +0.3 goals to SHK
  • Record
    SHK 1-1-0 · AEK 1-0-1
  • Market prior
    Blended 71% toward AEK +165 / total 2.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

1H2HT
AEK101
SHK123

How the goals went in

  • GOAL1H 28'

    Goal! Shakhtar Donetsk 0, AEK Athens 1. Lovro Majer (AEK Athens) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Stavros Pilios following a fast break.

  • GOAL1H 34'

    Goal! Shakhtar Donetsk 1, AEK Athens 1. Pedrinho (Shakhtar Donetsk) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the bottom right corner.

  • GOAL2H 80'

    Goal! Shakhtar Donetsk 2, AEK Athens 1. Vinícius Tobias (Shakhtar Donetsk) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Alisson Santana.

  • GOAL2H 86'

    Goal! Shakhtar Donetsk 3, AEK Athens 1. Gleiker Mendoza (Shakhtar Donetsk) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Isaque.

Game leaders

  • Harold Moukoudi
    totalshots 3
  • Filipe Relvas
    Pass 52
  • Lazaros Rota
    defensiveinterventions 11
  • Alberto Brignoli
    SV 1
  • Gleiker Mendoza
    totalshots 3
  • Mykola Matviyenko
    Pass 68
  • Pedrinho
    defensiveinterventions 14
  • Dmytro Riznyk
    SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

AEKSHK
Fouls1716
Yellow Cards41
Red Cards00
Offsides24
Corner Kicks25
Saves12
Possession45.554.5
SHOTS1312
ON GOAL34
On Target %0.20.3
Penalty Goals00
Penalty Kicks Taken01
Accurate Passes314403
Passes368447
Pass Completion %0.90.9
Accurate Crosses41
Crosses118
Cross %0.40.1
Long Balls3440
Accurate Long Balls1526
Long Balls %0.40.7
Blocked Shots35
Effective Tackles1113
Tackles1920
Tackle %0.60.7
Interceptions612
Effective Clearances910
Clearances910
Computer pick · Total
Under 2.5
51%

AEK 1.43–1.15 SHK

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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