NCAAFSat 9:00 PM CTUniversity Stadium (NM)

North Dakota State Bison at New Mexico Lobos

TV · CW

Sat 9:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UNM -4.5

55%

NDSU 18.27–24.72 UNM

North Dakota State Bison

6-1 · W1

206 PF · 79 PA

18.27

Projected

New Mexico Lobos

5-1 · W3 · computer pick

238 PF · 63 PA

24.72

NDSU 35%UNM 65%

Projected NDSU 18.27–24.72 UNM

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UNM -10.5

UNM -4.5

Total

44.0

42.5

Gap: +6.0 margin, +1.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NDSU vs UNM

The model

How this number was built

NDSU 18.27–24.72 UNM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UNM +7.8 vs NDSU -0.2 · pred margin +6.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.9 vs +6.1 · model UNM 28.4–19.1 NDSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to UNM
Record
UNM 5-1 · NDSU 6-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UNM -4.5 / total 42.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Nathan Hayes
Pass 106/163, 1272 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT
Myles Mitchell
Rush 81 CAR, 354 YDS, 3 TD
Jackson Williams
Rec 28 REC, 432 YDS, 1 TD

Toa Fa'avae
Pass 41/73, 698 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT
Scottre Humphrey
Rush 85 CAR, 422 YDS, 8 TD
Bailen George
Rec 12 REC, 240 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NDSU	UNM
Points Per Game	29.4	39.7
Total Yards	362.0	378.0
Yards Passing	187.3	163.5
Yards Rushing	174.7	214.5
Points Allowed Per Game	11.3	10.5
Yards Allowed	246.0	262.7
Pass Yards Allowed	133.9	170.7
Rush Yards Allowed	112.1	92.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

N Dakota St vs New Mexico prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UNM -4.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projects N Dakota St 18.3, New Mexico 24.7. Model win probability: New Mexico 65%, N Dakota St 35%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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