NCAAFSat 9:15 PM CTRice-Eccles Stadium

#14 Houston Cougars at #10 Utah Utes

TV · ESPN

Sat 9:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UTAH -6.5

51%

HOU 24.94–31.68 UTAH

#14Houston Cougars

6-1 · W4

275 PF · 147 PA

24.94

Projected

#10Utah Utes

6-0 · W6 · computer pick

241 PF · 89 PA

31.68

HOU 34%UTAH 66%

Projected HOU 24.94–31.68 UTAH

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UTAH -7.2

UTAH -6.5

Total

56.9

56.5

Gap: +0.7 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: HOU vs UTAH

The model

How this number was built

HOU 24.94–31.68 UTAH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UTAH +17.4 vs HOU +14.8 · pred margin +6.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +13.2 vs +8.3 · model UTAH 34.3–23.4 HOU
Home field
+3.0 pts to UTAH
Record
UTAH 6-0 · HOU 6-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UTAH -6.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Conner Weigman
Pass 134/198, 1771 YDS, 20 TD, 2 INT
Makhi Hughes
Rush 98 CAR, 464 YDS, 3 TD
Amare Thomas
Rec 36 REC, 487 YDS, 6 TD

Devon Dampier
Pass 118/172, 1412 YDS, 15 TD, 4 INT
Wayshawn Parker
Rush 89 CAR, 597 YDS, 7 TD
Braden Pegan
Rec 32 REC, 422 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HOU	UTAH
Points Per Game	39.3	40.2
Total Yards	485.1	486.5
Yards Passing	264.9	266.3
Yards Rushing	220.3	220.2
Points Allowed Per Game	21.0	14.8
Yards Allowed	347.6	303.2
Pass Yards Allowed	265.0	214.5
Rush Yards Allowed	82.6	88.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Houston vs Utah prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UTAH -6.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Houston 24.9, Utah 31.7. Model win probability: Utah 66%, Houston 34%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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