ScotlandSun 9:00 AM CTFir Park

Heart of Midlothian at Motherwell

Sun 9:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

51%

At lock HOM 1.47–1.11 MOT · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Braga · HOM
Forward
A. Lowry · MOT
Midfielder

Heart of Midlothian

5-1-3

Form DLDWD · 20 PF · 15 PA

1.47

Projected

Motherwell

2-2-5

Form DLLLL · 11 PF · 16 PA

1.11

HOM 44%Draw 29%MOT 27%

At lock: projected HOM 1.47–1.11 MOT · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

MOT win

48%

40% (no-vig)

Total

2.72

2.5

Gap: +8 pts of win %, +0.22 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

HOM 1.47–1.11 MOT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MOT att -0.13 / def +0.06 · HOM att +0.09 / def +0.16 · model MOT 1.3–1.4 HOM
Home field
+0.3 goals to MOT
Record
MOT 2-2-5 · HOM 5-1-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward HOM +110 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cláudio Braga
goals 3
Cláudio Braga
goalsleaders 3

Alexander Lowry
goals 3
Alexander Lowry
goalsleaders 3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

J. Wilson anytime goal
Anytime goal · HOM
+230
30%
D. Williams anytime goal
Anytime goal · MOT
+1700
6%
J. Knight-Lebel anytime goal
Anytime goal · MOT
+2000
6%

Hearts vs Motherwell prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Hearts 1.5, Motherwell 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Motherwell 27%, Hearts 44%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day