New York Islanders at Dallas Stars
TV · ESPN+
At lock NYI 2.15–3.37 DAL · DAL by 1.2 goals vs NYI +1.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected NYI 2.15–3.37 DAL
Model vs market
Gap: -3 pts of win %, +0.07 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NYI vs DAL
Islanders vs Stars prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NYI +1.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Islanders 2.1, Stars 3.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Stars 69%, Islanders 31%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day