Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets
TV · TNT
At lock MTL 3.44–2.17 WPG · MTL by 1.3 goals vs WPG +1.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected MTL 3.44–2.17 WPG
Model vs market
Gap: -4 pts of win %, +0.54 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MTL vs WPG
Canadiens vs Jets prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is WPG +1.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Canadiens 3.4, Jets 2.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Jets 30%, Canadiens 70%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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