NFLSun 7:20 PM CTLumen Field

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

TV · NBC

Sun 7:20 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

SEA -2.5

51%

KC 20.17–22.38 SEA

Data-Driven Pick · J. Smith-Njigba Under 90.5 rec yds

-110

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · W5

140 PF · 83 PA

20.17

Projected

Seattle Seahawks

3-3 · L2 · computer pick

148 PF · 122 PA

22.38

KC 44%SEA 56%

Projected KC 20.17–22.38 SEA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SEA -1.6

SEA -2.5

Total

42.6

42.5

Gap: -0.9 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: KC vs SEA

The model

How this number was built

KC 20.17–22.38 SEA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SEA +3.4 vs KC +5.2 · pred margin +2.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) SEA off -0.04, def stop +0.12 · KC off +0.04, def stop +0.04 · rest +3d · model SEA 23.5–19.5 KC
Home field
+2.4 pts to SEA
Record
SEA 3-3 · KC 5-0
Market prior
Blended 68% toward SEA -2.5 / total 42.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Patrick Mahomes
Pass 105/158, 1309 YDS, 9 TD, 3 INT
Kenneth Walker III
Rush 106 CAR, 665 YDS, 6 TD
Travis Kelce
Rec 20 REC, 299 YDS, 2 TD

Sam Darnold
Pass 90/149, 1033 YDS, 7 TD, 7 INT
Emanuel Wilson
Rush 87 CAR, 303 YDS, 2 TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rec 49 REC, 717 YDS, 7 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KC	SEA
Points Per Game	28.0	24.7
Total Yards	421.6	352.0
Yards Passing	261.8	244.8
Yards Rushing	159.8	107.2
Points Allowed Per Game	16.6	20.3
Yards Allowed	312.8	252.8
Pass Yards Allowed	224.0	156.8
Rush Yards Allowed	88.8	96.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

J. Smith-Njigba Under 90.5 rec yds

-11070%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

K. Walker III Under 88.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · KC
-110
62%
P. Mahomes Over 221.5 pass yds
Passing yards · KC
-110
60%
J. Smith-Njigba Under 6.5 rec
Receptions · SEA
-110
60%
S. Darnold Over 5.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · SEA
-110
60%
S. Darnold Over 223.5 pass yds
Passing yards · SEA
-110
59%
P. Mahomes Over 14.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · KC
-110
58%
S. Darnold anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
58%
J. Smith-Njigba anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
58%
S. Darnold Over 232.5 pass+rush yds
Pass + rush yards · SEA
-110
57%
KC anytime TD
Anytime TD · KC
-110
56%
SEA anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
56%

Chiefs vs Seahawks prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SEA -2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Chiefs 20.2, Seahawks 22.4. Model win probability: Seahawks 56%, Chiefs 44%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day