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Athletic Club at Levante

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Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

51%

ATH 1.31–1.43 LEV

Athletic Club

2-3-2

Form DDDWW · 7 PF · 6 PA

1.31

Projected

Levante

1-4-3

Form DDLLD · 12 PF · 16 PA

1.43

ATH 33%Draw 28%LEV 39%

Projected ATH 1.31–1.43 LEV · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LEV win

53%

37% (no-vig)

Total

2.73

2.5

Gap: +16 pts of win %, +0.23 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

ATH 1.31–1.43 LEV · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LEV att -0.09 / def -0.19 · ATH att -0.15 / def +0.06 · model LEV 1.4–1.3 ATH
Home field
+0.3 goals to LEV
Record
LEV 1-4-3 · ATH 2-3-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Robert Navarro
goals 2
Robert Navarro
goalsleaders 2

Iván Romero
goals 3
Iván Romero
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ATH	LEV
Goal Difference	1	-4
Total Goals	7	12
Assists	5	6
Goals Against	6	16

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

G. Guruzeta anytime goal
Anytime goal · ATH
+200
33%
I. Williams anytime goal
Anytime goal · ATH
+225
31%
R. Navarro anytime goal
Anytime goal · ATH
+225
31%
M. Sannadi anytime goal
Anytime goal · ATH
+245
29%
E. Eyong anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEV
+280
26%
P. Ratkov anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEV
+300
25%
P. Canales anytime goal
Anytime goal · ATH
+350
22%
N. Serrano anytime goal
Anytime goal · ATH
+400
20%
A. Paredes anytime goal
Anytime goal · ATH
+1000
9%
M. Jauregizar anytime goal
Anytime goal · ATH
+1100
8%
A. Tape anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEV
+1100
8%
Y. Berchiche anytime goal
Anytime goal · ATH
+1200
8%

Athletic vs Levante prediction · Oct 21, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Athletic 1.3, Levante 1.4. Model win probability: Levante 39%, Athletic 33%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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